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Posts Tagged ‘Polls’

Select 17, Week 11

Posted by Brett Kincaid on November 6, 2012

The road to football Armageddon has been cleared thanks to late game heroics by Alabama and Notre Dame, a gritty home win by Kansas State, and a dominant offensive road performance by Oregon. As noted last week, all four teams have limited challenges remaining. This week, though, Bama has a suddenly tough game against Texas A&M and their high-powered offense. How will the Tide respond after an emotional win in Baton Rouge? Notre Dame travels to Chestnut Hill to face Boston College in the Catholic Bowl. Will their luck finally run out this weekend after two near/should-have-been losses at home in the past month? Kansas State hits the road this week to take on TCU, which has struggled quite a bit in its first season as a member of the Big XII. And Oregon hits the road again, this time heading to Berkeley to take on an unraveling Cal team.

If Alabama was playing on the road again this week, I’d be tempted to call for the Aggie upset. They run a completely different offense than Bama has seen this year and are playing with a ton of confidence right now. I’ll take the Aggies and 2 touchdowns (the line is currently Bama -13.5) but Bama to win. Notre Dame hasn’t looked very good offensively, but Boston College is pretty bad. The Irish should get to 10-0 this weekend. Kansas State needs to watch out for a road letdown,  but TCU’s defense – usually its strength – is one of the worst in the country this year. Bill Snyder should pick up another road win in his magical season back in Manhattan. Oregon looks to be the safest bet for a win, even if it’s on the road. The Ducks gave up a ton of points to Southern Cal, but they can easily score enough to beat a 3-7 California team with what most believe is a lame duck coach.

Georgia made up a lot of ground this weekend, narrowing the gap between them and Notre Dame to just one point in our poll. The Bulldogs play their annually rivalry game with Auburn this week, needing only a win against the pathetic War Damn Eagle Tigers to cinch the SEC East. A Bulldog win coupled with another lackluster Irish performance against a lousy team could knock Notre Dame down to a peg despite their undefeated record. Despite having 4 teams in the Top Ten, the SEC is just one Alabama loss from being a long shot to play for its 7th consecutive BCS championship.

To the numbers…

Rank Team Votes LW
1 Alabama (9) 153 1
2 Oregon 142 2
3 Kansas St. 137 3
4 Notre Dame 113 4
5 Georgia 112 6
6 Florida 100 7
7 LSU 89 5
8 Florida St. 83 8
9 Louisville 81 9
10 Ohio St. 70 10
11 South Carolina 62 12
12 Clemson 61 11
13 Oregon St. 45 13
14 Texas A&M 42 16
15 Oklahoma 31 17
16 Stanford 28 14
17 Nebraska 10 NR

 

Others Receiving Votes: Louisiana Tech 7, UCLA 7, Rutgers 2, Texas 1, Luck of the Irish 1

 

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Select 17 – Week 7

Posted by Brett Kincaid on October 9, 2012

Huge changes in this week’s Select 17 poll here at BlogHawgs.com. Alabama and Oregon continue to control their own destinies, but now we can add South Carolina and Florida to that list – along with Kansas State and West Virginia – while removing LSU and Florida State. This was the first big weekend of major upsets, although Florida over LSU is just a marginal one on paper. The big winner, though, was clearly West Virginia. The Mountaineers went into Austin, Texas, and took out the bluest of the blue bloods in their first Big XII road game. Geno Smith, fresh off his video game-like performance against Baylor, cemented his status as Heisman Trophy front runner while Mount Pleasant (IA) High School graduate Dana Holgorson has emerged as the “next big thing” coach in America. Jeff Long, please take note.

And let’s keep an eye on Oregon State. The Beavers have ripped off two conference road wins in addition to knocking out Wisconsin in an early preseason game. After a punchy Wazzou visits this weekend, they go to Provo to take on an injured BYU squad before hosting Utah the following week. If Oregon State can navigate those three and avoid a let down, they would travel to Washington at the end of October as an unbeaten Top Five team. Could it be that Pac-12 football is alive and well? With the Ducks, Oregon State, and Southern Cal all occupying spots in the Select 17 this week and Stanford knocking on the door, even us Southern boys appear to be impressed with West Coast football this season.

To the poll…

Rank Team Votes LW
1 Alabama (9) 153 1
2 Oregon 144 2
3 South Carolina 132 7
4 West Virginia 128 6
5 Kansas St. 111 8
6 Florida 108 11
7 Notre Dame 89 10
8 Oregon St. 65 16
9 Ohio St. 62 13
10 LSU 59 3
11 Southern Cal 56 12
12 Georgia 41 4
13 Florida St. 40 5
14 Louisville 37 NR
15 Mississippi St. 36 NR
16 Clemson 32 15
17 Oklahoma 31 17

Others Receiving Votes: Stanford 17, Rutgers 14, Texas 11, Cincinnati 6, Texas A&M 4, Louisiana Tech 1

 

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Select 17 – Week 3

Posted by Brett Kincaid on September 12, 2011

Not a lot of movement in this week’s poll.  The chalk walked this past weekend, although a few had to pull out minor miracles to get it done.  Ohio State looks very fragile, Mississippi State showed it is not quite ready for prime time, and Arkansas flexed against a weak opponent for the 2nd straight week.  Week Three presents a few marquee games, notably Florida State v. Oklahoma.  The conference schedules are about to get into full swing over the next 2 weeks, and that means this is the last week we’ll see a Select 17 with this little movement.

Rank Team Votes LW
1 Oklahoma (6) 147 1
2 Alabama (2) 144 2
3 LSU (1) 133 3
4 Stanford 115 4
5 Wisconsin 107 6
6 Boise St 106 5
7 Florida St. 97 7
8 Arkansas 91 8
9 Texas A&M 75 9
10 Nebraska 73 10
11 Oklahoma St. 60 11
12 Virginia Tech 59 12
13 South Carolina 53 14
14 Oregon 41 13
15 Michigan St. 28 16
16 Florida 22 NR
17 Ohio St. 10 17

Others Receiving Votes:  West Virginia 6, Baylor 5, Arizona St. 2, South Florida 2, Auburn 1

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The Case for Boise State

Posted by Brett Kincaid on August 29, 2010

This football season has great potential to be one of the best, most competitive seasons in recent memory.  We go into the season with no clear cut, consensus #1 football team in the country.  There are several candidates for the preseason top spot, and all can make a strong argument.  Unlike most seasons, though, you can actually make a pretty compelling case against each of those teams, too.

Will they make a banner like this again for 2010?

We’ll release our preseason Select 17 on Monday.  I’ve gone through several versions of my ballot over the past week or so, and it just never felt right.  Not until this morning, that is.  I put Boise State up top as my preseason #1 team.  I feel good about it.  I feel like Boise State has the most complete team with the fewest questions heading into play next week.  More on that in a minute.

Let’s take a quick look at the other teams.

Alabama is the chic pick, and I must say that they present a compelling case.  They return 8 starters on offense including the reigning Heisman Trophy winner and a quarterback that has not lost a start since junior high.  The Tide should power run with the best of ‘em this year, and Greg McElroy has shown that he can throw the deep ball.  In short, the Alabama offense should be very good in 2010.

Questions abound, though, on the defensive side of the ball.  Only three starters return from last year’s national championship team.  Marcel Dareus is a big question mark heading into the season as an NCAAinvestigation looms surrounding his eligibility.  Underreported by the national media, Nick Saban moved Kirby Smart from coaching the secondary to linebackers coach after James Willis left to lead the Texas Tech defense.  Jeremy Pruitt takes over the DB coaching duties now, and he does so after losing 3 of the 4 starters from last season  – and four of five from its nickel package.

Bama has tons of talent, and I believe these guys will come together this season and end up in a BCS bowl.  But they’ll take two losses before storming through October and November.  The schedule – featuring six opponents coming off open weeks prior to facing Alabama – will simply not allow an Alabama repeat.

Ohio State generally appears as the team to beat in the Big Ten – a league that I believe is far better than it was over the past four years.  There are 3 legit BCS Championship Game contenders in the league (Ohio St, Iowa, Wisconsin), and the middle 4 teams are all very solid.  Anyone who saw the Rose Bowl knows that the light appears to have come on for Terrelle Pryor.  And Mayor Tressel always puts up a stout defense.

September 11th will set the tone for the Buckeye season.  Miami comes to The Horseshoe in what is a huge game for both programs.  I credit Ohio State for reaching out and playing at least one big intra-sectional game every year.  This is a big one, and if OSU can pull it off they will have a legitimate claim on the #1 spot.  The problem for OSU is that they league may actually be too tough this year.  They have to travel to Madison and Iowa City this year, in addition to home games against Penn St. and Michigan.  A one-loss Buckeye squad may sneak into the title picture, but can you count on OSU to have only 1 loss?  I cannot.

Florida and Texas appear to be getting a lot of love this preseason, too.  I buy the Florida hype a little more than Texas, but I’m still not sold on either.  In fact I think both should be happy to play in a New Year’s Day bowl this year in advance of what will certainly be National Championship runs in 2011.  Both programs are replacing quarterbacks that identified their respective programs for the past half decade.  Aside from the team identity, Tim Tebow and Colt McCoy also played key roles in the running game.  As such, both schools are looking for bell cow running backs to take the burden off first-year starters.  Texas has even more questions when you look at their defensive line.  Unlike almost every other voter in our poll, I have no hate in my heart for Texas.  I also have no space for them on my ballot anywhere in the Top 17 preseason.

Oklahoma also presents an interesting case.  Phil Steele tabbed the Sooners as his team to beat this summer.  At first I scoffed at the notion, but the college football oracle may be on to something.  TheOklahoma schedule is more than manageable.   They have 3 solid non-conference games (Florida St, Air Force, @ Cincinnati) that will certainly bolster their computer ratings in the BCS formula.  On the field, OU has a suddenly-experienced quarterback and a slew of wide receivers.  Oklahoma needs to find a running back, and Bob Stoops has a handful of studs waiting to prove they can handle the rock.  If OU can fill holes on the defensive line, these guys could be great.  We’ll call Oklahoma my dark horse candidate for now.

That takes us to Boise State.  In the past four years, Boise has gone 49-4 and won two Fiesta Bowls.  The Broncos return 21 of 22 starters off last year’s team.  They beat the Pac-10 champs and steamrolled the rest of their schedule.  Boise then took out fellow BCS-Buster TCU to complete its second perfect season without a national title.  Known as a team with an innovative offensive team, Chris Peterson’s 2009 Broncos were stout defensively.  And did I mention they return almost every starter from last year?

Kellen Moore put up Play Station numbers last season and returns for his third year as a starter.  He was second nationally in pass efficiency and posted a ridiculous 39-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio.  Yeah…read that again.  39 – 3

Their top 2 rushers return from last season, a duo that combined for more than 1,900 yards.  Moore’s number one receiving target, Titus Young, is also back after posting 1,000 yards receiving last year.  Oh, and all five offensive linemen also come back to the blue turf.

Defensively the Broncos gave up only 17 points/game in 2009 and had a +21 turnover margin.  Ten of 11 starters return, but the biggest replacement will be at the defensive coordinator spot.  Pete Kwiatkowski takes over for Justin Wilcox who is off to Tennessee.  Kwiatkowski served as the Broncos defensive line coach before his promotion, so don’t expect a ton of changes.  Whatever they’ve been doing has worked in Idaho.

The schedule is tougher this year, highlighted by the biggest regular season game in Boise State history on Labor Day.  The Broncos open against Virginia Tech in Landover, MD at FedEx Field – home to the Washington Redskins.  Boise then travels to Wyoming before they host Oregon State, a team that expects to challenge for the Pac-10 title this year.

The schedule eases quite a bit after that.  This is the biggest problem for Boise State in its claim on the top spot.  While most experts think of Fresno St. and Nevada as decent non-BCS opponents, the WAC is a far cry from every BCS conference with the Big East being the only comparable league – and to be sure the Big East is better.

I think the arguments are reasonable.  Boise St. does have an easy conference schedule.  The biggest defense of penalizing Boise for that is the, “I think Boise would win no more than 8 games in the SEC.”  Sorry, guys, but I just don’t buy that.  I don’t think Oklahoma, Texas, or Ohio St. could win 10 games every year with an SEC schedule.  I do think this Boise State team could hang with any league this season.  I certainly think they would have a legit shot to win the Pac-10, the ACC, or the Big XII.  And I’d not want to bet against them winning the Big 10 or the SEC – THIS season.

On a year-to-year basis, I may agree that Boise just doesn’t quite have the stuff to really contend for the national title.  But this year is different.

There is not a team that stands out from the crowd, at least not in late August.  In my mind, Boise has as good a claim as anyone.  Bringing back the talent they bring, the discipline Peterson has instilled in his team over the past half-decade, and the utter domination they show – even in a weaker league – is enough for me.  If Boise St. can pull off wins over Virginia Tech and Oregon State then run the table through the rest of the schedule, I’ll leave them up top all year.

This is the type of season where a Cinderella story can happen.  If Butler can make it to the hoops final, why not Boise for football?  It’s their year.  Boise St. will not have a shot like this again in the foreseeable future.  Florida and Texas will make legitimate runs at the title in 2011, and I expect OU will be getting some love for the next couple years.  While the Big Boys of the sport look for answers to big questions this season, Boise St. is ready.

Oh…and make no mistake.  If Boise St. loses to Virginia Tech in the opener, I’ll deny having ever written this.

Posted in Sports | Tagged: , , , , , , | 7 Comments »

 
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