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Blog Hawgs Stat Geek Weekly Newsletter–On The Davey O’Brien Award’s Tyler Wilson Snub

Posted by Adam Butler on October 24, 2012

On Monday, the 2012 Davey O’Brien Award semifinalist list was released, naming the nation’s 16 best QBs based on “quarterback skills, athletic ability, academics, character, leadership and sportsmanship”. Tyler Wilson was inexplicably absent.

In light of the snub, I feel compelled to highlight how well Tyler is performing as a player/coach for the Hogs this season.

While the folks at The Fort Worth Club may not think much of Wilson’s performance this year, he continues to display the talent and skill that make him a probable 1st round draft pick.

Tyler is putting up a statistical performance on par with any in program history. So far this year, playing in essentially 5 games due to missing the 2nd halves of the ULM (injury) and Kentucky (rain) games, Wilson is on pace to surpass his production from last year.

Let that sink in. Due to an injury-riddled defense and rushing production that landed in the bottom 1/3 of the FBS, the Razorbacks leaned heavily on Tyler in 2011 to lead them to an 11-2 record.

He passed for 3,638 yards in 2011 and is currently on pace for 3,886 this year. Wilson is currently 6th in yards per game in the NCAA and makes up of 65% of the Arkansas offense this year (the exact same % as 2011).

Season marks :

·        3,886 would give Wilson the top passing yardage season UA history;

·        3,886 would give Wilson the 3rd best passing yardage season in SEC history;

·        Wilson’s current pace would give him 8,195 career passing yards, which would put him 702 yards ahead of Ryan Mallett’s current school mark of          7,493; and

·        8,195 would put Wilson in the 18th spot for career passing yards in the SEC. Wilson is also on track to end up in the top 20 for TD passes in a season and in the          top 20 all-time in career SEC TD tosses.

SG+1:

Here is a little perspective on just how horrible West Virginia’s defense has been so far in their inaugural BIG XII season – After 4 conference games, the WVU D has given up a total of 2,259 yards and 212 points.

That averages out to 53 points and 565 yards per game and an average of 7.68 yards per play.

By comparison, Alabama has given up 2,302 yards in the past 13 conference games (a 177-yard per game average going back to the 2011 Arkansas game) and 221 points in the past 19 conference games (an 11.6 points per game average going back to the 2010 Mississippi State game). Those conference games include the LSU BCSNC repeat game.

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BlogHawgs Stat Geek Weekly Newsletter–9/18/12

Posted by Adam Butler on September 18, 2012

By BlogHawgs Statistical Front Man Brian Rogers

While I watched with glee as Western Kentucky head coach Willie Taggert made an unbelievable OT play call and Stanford physically took it to USC, it became clear my personal 2012 college football theme is officially mayhem.

I am now in the mode of rooting for complete underdog-dominated mayhem.

It is certainly what seems to describe the Razorback 2012 campaign and atmosphere in the Broyles Athletic Center as Hog fans are looking to Tyler Wilson to get back on the field and try to “insure” this season is salvaged from the ditch off of Highway 16.

Let’s see where the 52-0 loss to Alabama falls in Razorback history:

·        Bad: The shutout in Fayetteville was the first in 162 games, since 1966 when the Baylor Bears won 7-0.

·        Ugly: It was the worst loss in Fayetteville since 1919, when someone named Henry Kendall beat the Hogs 63-7. (Just kidding, Tulsa fans. We know that was your name until you changed it in 1921)

·        Huh?: The loss came up 51 points shy of the worst defeat in Arkansas history, when the Hogs traveled to Norman in 1918 and lost 103-0.

·        _efense: This was the 4th time in the past 5 seasons that Arkansas’ _efense gave up over 50 points.

The shocking win that shouldn’t be shocking: Stanford has now beaten Southern Cal in 5 of their last 6 meetings.

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BlogHawgs.com Stat Geek Weekly Newsletter–Anatomy of a Meltdown Edition

Posted by Adam Butler on September 11, 2012

Alright boys and girls, as is customary, the Stat Geek is here to recap the weekend that was and provide some statistical perspective. It’s a tough week, but it’s Time to Make the Donuts.

There is no other way to put it – The Arkansas Razorbacks stunk Saturday. Everyone. Offense. Defense. Coaches.

It was understood that  the Hogs’ defense was the weak link of the team this year and it lived up (down?) to expectations last Saturday.

However, when you start evaluating things, the biggest enemy of the defense was not Kolton Browning, but their own coaches and teammates on the other side of the ball.

Below is a summary of Arkansas’ offensive offense from the 2nd half of Saturday’s stunner:

-15 drives possessions in the game – drive is too strong of a word for how the offense performed.

Let’s focus on the 13 possessions in regulation, as we all know the OT possession ended with a 37 yard FG and one possession was a kneel down before half.

-Of Arkansas’ 13 possessions -  4 lasted less than 1 minute and resulted in no points; 3 lasted between 1:00-1:29 with only one ending in a TD; 2 lasted between 1:30 – 1:59 and produced no points; 3 lasted between 2:00 – 2:59 and garnered 2 TDs; and 1 lasted over 3:00 (3:02) and yielded a TD.

Arkansas’ offense had six “3 & Out” possessions. The average number of plays per possession in the 13 possessions was 4.6

–In the 2nd half, UA backup quarterback Brandon Allen was good for an 8 play, 67 yard TD drive that ate up 2:59. Then, he looked like a Redshirt Freshman playing in emergency duty, leading the offense the rest of the game to only 35 yards in 23 plays accounting for just 6 minutes 35 seconds off of the game clock.

–The biggest issue for the Razorbacks second half defense was a total abandonment of the run game, especially with a backup QB having to be rushed into emergency duty. Arkansas had only 9 rush attempts to go with huge question mark as to why senior runningback Dennis Johnson, who had been effective (7.1 yards per carry), was only given 2 carries.

–Lastly, from the “Can we play LSU in Little Rock” department: The ULM loss moved into first place of the “Most Embarrassing” losses in Arkansas football history, passing the infamous Citadel debacle. The common occurrence? Prior to this year’s scheduled LSU game on campus, the last time the Bayou Bengals were on the Fayetteville schedule was 1992 (when The Citadel stunned the Hogs).

However, it’s worth noting that Arkansas, despite finishing 3-7-1 that year, beat a top 5 team (Tennessee).

So the Hogs have that going for them, right?

Posted in Sports | Tagged: , , , | 3 Comments »

BlogHawgs.com Stat Geek’s Weekly Newsletter–FCS Cupcake Edition

Posted by Adam Butler on September 4, 2012

By BlogHawgs.com Statistical Front Man Brian Rogers

Every Tuesday, the BlogHawgs.com  Stat Geek is here to offer statistical information about the issues of the day that relate to University Arkansas athletics,  College Football, or as was the case a few weeks ago, (calling out) the lazy national pollsters / writers.

This week, I felt the need to take a dive into last week’s game against Jacksonville State and try to help Hog fans with  some much-needed-PERSPECTIVE.

With all the gnashing of teeth coming from the Natural State about the Hogs’ inability dismiss the lowly FCS (D-1AA) team by a suitable score of 84-0 or thereabout, I set out to see how other Top 25 teams fared in week 1 vs. FCS opponents.

For purposes of comparison, there were conveniently 5 Week 1 Top 25 vs. FCS matchups this year, as well as, 5 Week 1 Top 25 vs. FCS match-ups last year. I wanted to stay with Week 1 only because of similar “intangible” factors of rust, opening-game jitters and the FCS team gearing up all off season for their “Super Bowl”.

Per the chart below, Arkansas’ yards allowed total was the 2nd most of the 10 match-ups over the past 2 years. That is not a good sign for a team desperately needing the D to rise up to avoid future  big-game disappointments. It is also interesting to see that Arkansas’ defensive performance in last year’s opener was in the top half.

 

2012
Top 25 TEAM

WISCY

ARK

*KSTATE

OKST

FLST
Opponent

N. IOWA

JAXST

MOST

SAV

MURYST
Net Yards

306

322

418

139

156
Rush Yds

41

95

95

58

39
Pass Yds

265

227

323

81

117
Turnovers Lost

0

0

2

2

3
Team wk 1 rank

12

10

22

19

7

2011
Top 25 TEAM

SPARTY

BAMA

NEB

VTECH

ARK
Opponent

YSU

KENT ST

CHAT

APP ST

MIZZ ST
Net Yards

254

90

230

293

163
Rush Yds

128

-9

60

117

84
Pass Yds

126

99

170

176

79
Turnovers Lost

1

1

1

4

1
Team wk 1 rank

17

2

10

13

15
Team final rank

11

1

24

21

5

 *See note regarding Kent. St. in the comments section.

However, remember the goal of this post is to provide perspective.

So, consider: When you add the number of plays the opponents ran in the game, the perspective changes. The 2012 Arkansas opener was on par with its 2011 opener and the openers of several programs that are known for their defense:

2012
Top 25 TEAM

WISCY

ARK

KSTATE

OKST

FLST
Opponent

NOIOWA

JAXST

MOST

SAV

MURYST
Yards

306

322

418

139

156
Plays

54

81

77

68

70
Yd per play

5.67

3.98

5.43

2.04

2.23
Wk 1 AP rank

12

10

22

19

7

2011
Top 25 TEAM

SPARTY

BAMA

NEB

VTECH

ARK
Opponent

YSU

KENT ST

CHAT

APP ST

MIZZ ST
Yards

254

90

230

293

163
Plays

69

70

67

62

49
Yd per play

3.68

1.29

3.43

4.73

3.33
Defense Rank

5

1

38

14

54
Wk 1 AP rank

17

2

10

13

15
Final AP rank

11

1

24

21

5

When looking at the various metrics in the charts, while Arkansas’ 4th worst yards per play of the 10 games does not elicit warm and fuzzies all over Razorback Nation, the 3.98 yards per play was similar to the performances of some pretty good defenses (based on yards per game average in 2011).

The stats paint part of the pitcture, but a key variable coaches deal with in facing “inferior” opponents is the fact that they are dealing with 18-22 year old kids who listen to talk radio and read the internet or newspaper and often let their guards dowm and play to thee level of their competition, as well as having 1,000 other things on their minds in the first month of the season (with 1-998 of them being co-eds).

Bonus stat coverage: The Stat Geek would like to highlight an interesting STAT OF THE DAY, courtesy Seton O’Connor of the Dan Patrick Show. Per O’Connor, with rare exceptions (Auburn 2010 being one), champions crowned in the BCS era (1998 – present) have the following two attributes: they start in Top 16 of the AP poll and score between 31-57 points in their opener.

There are 6 teams in 2012 that meet these qualifications: Alabama, LSU, Southern Cal, Georgia, Texas, and Arkansas.

Posted in Commentary, Sports | Tagged: , , , , | 6 Comments »

 
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