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Select 17, Week 11

Posted by Brett Kincaid on November 6, 2012

The road to football Armageddon has been cleared thanks to late game heroics by Alabama and Notre Dame, a gritty home win by Kansas State, and a dominant offensive road performance by Oregon. As noted last week, all four teams have limited challenges remaining. This week, though, Bama has a suddenly tough game against Texas A&M and their high-powered offense. How will the Tide respond after an emotional win in Baton Rouge? Notre Dame travels to Chestnut Hill to face Boston College in the Catholic Bowl. Will their luck finally run out this weekend after two near/should-have-been losses at home in the past month? Kansas State hits the road this week to take on TCU, which has struggled quite a bit in its first season as a member of the Big XII. And Oregon hits the road again, this time heading to Berkeley to take on an unraveling Cal team.

If Alabama was playing on the road again this week, I’d be tempted to call for the Aggie upset. They run a completely different offense than Bama has seen this year and are playing with a ton of confidence right now. I’ll take the Aggies and 2 touchdowns (the line is currently Bama -13.5) but Bama to win. Notre Dame hasn’t looked very good offensively, but Boston College is pretty bad. The Irish should get to 10-0 this weekend. Kansas State needs to watch out for a road letdown,  but TCU’s defense – usually its strength – is one of the worst in the country this year. Bill Snyder should pick up another road win in his magical season back in Manhattan. Oregon looks to be the safest bet for a win, even if it’s on the road. The Ducks gave up a ton of points to Southern Cal, but they can easily score enough to beat a 3-7 California team with what most believe is a lame duck coach.

Georgia made up a lot of ground this weekend, narrowing the gap between them and Notre Dame to just one point in our poll. The Bulldogs play their annually rivalry game with Auburn this week, needing only a win against the pathetic War Damn Eagle Tigers to cinch the SEC East. A Bulldog win coupled with another lackluster Irish performance against a lousy team could knock Notre Dame down to a peg despite their undefeated record. Despite having 4 teams in the Top Ten, the SEC is just one Alabama loss from being a long shot to play for its 7th consecutive BCS championship.

To the numbers…

Rank Team Votes LW
1 Alabama (9) 153 1
2 Oregon 142 2
3 Kansas St. 137 3
4 Notre Dame 113 4
5 Georgia 112 6
6 Florida 100 7
7 LSU 89 5
8 Florida St. 83 8
9 Louisville 81 9
10 Ohio St. 70 10
11 South Carolina 62 12
12 Clemson 61 11
13 Oregon St. 45 13
14 Texas A&M 42 16
15 Oklahoma 31 17
16 Stanford 28 14
17 Nebraska 10 NR

 

Others Receiving Votes: Louisiana Tech 7, UCLA 7, Rutgers 2, Texas 1, Luck of the Irish 1

 

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The “C” in BCS Stands for Conspiracy

Posted by Brett Kincaid on November 21, 2011

Or maybe “Crappy Computers” is more accurate.

There is no denying one fact: The computers used to calculate the BCS rankings favor the Big XII this year.  It’s actually quite staggering.  If it were up to the guys with Macs and PCs, Kansas State and Oklahoma would both be deep in the hunt to play for the national title.  The unconditional love for the Big XII artificially keeps all conference members high in the rankings since they all play each other right now.

How bad is it?

Nine of the 10 teams in the league rank in the computers Top 40.  The 10th team – Kansas – ranks 75th in the computers.  Kansas is 2-8 on the season coming off a 61-7 loss to the CPU 24th ranked Texas A&M Aggies.  The Jayhawks have not won a league game, and their average margin of defeat in conference play is just shy of 28 points.  Statistically they have the worst defense in college football.  But the computers would have you believe there are 45 teams in the country that are actually worse than the Jayhawks.

This is how the Big XII ranks if you ask the computers:

Rank Team CPU Average
2 Oklahoma St. 2.25
5 Kansas St. 5
6 Oklahoma 6
13 Baylor 12.25
21 Texas 20.5
24 Texas A&M 22
26 Missouri 24.25
29 Iowa St. 25.5
39 Texas Tech 38.5
75 Kansas 74.75

Kansas State lost to both Oklahoma schools – one at home, one on the road – yet all three rank inside the top 6 of the computers.  Baylor – a team that has lost 3 road games by an average of 3 touchdowns – is somehow viewed as the 13th best team in the country according to the guys at Gigabyte Illustrated.  And Texas, a team that has combined to score 18 points in the past two weeks, is a Top 25 team according to the computers?  What gives?

The lovefest for the Big XII is only amplified when you consider the lack of respect the computers show for the SEC.  With 2 more teams than the Big XII, it is reasonable to expect some bottom-feeders to drag down the average a tad.  If that was the case, I think we could all accept it.  The problem, though, is that the SEC’s computer average is an eye-popping 34.17 compared to a 24.0 for the Big XII.  Huh?

Rank Team CPU Average
1 LSU 1
3 Alabama 2.75
4 Arkansas 4.25
10 South Carolina 10.5
14 Georgia 14.25
23 Auburn 21.75
33 Florida 32.75
45 Mississippi St. 45
46 Tennessee 46
61 Vanderbilt 59.25
79 Kentucky 77.5
91 Mississippi 93.5

Like a lot of folks, I still think Alabama is the best team in the country.  LSU deserves the top spot because they’ve proven it on the field.  There is no denying that.  But I think Bama still has a better overall team.  Does anyone honestly think Oklahoma State has a better team than Alabama?  Than Arkansas?  Hell, than South Carolina or Georgia?

Let’s take the top five teams from each conference, in order, and play a game of “Who Wins?”

  • LSU v. Oklahoma St.
  • Alabama v. Kansas St.
  • Arkansas v. Oklahoma
  • South Carolina v. Baylor
  • Georgia v. Texas

In how many of those games would the Big XII team be favored over the SEC team?  Any?  Maybe OU v. Arkansas would be a pick ‘em, and maybe Baylor would be a slight favorite over the Gamecocks without Lattimore.  But I think those are both very questionable.  Yet the average computer ranking for the five Big XII schools is 9.4 and for the five SEC schools that average is 11.

For Arkansas fans worried about not getting the bounce needed to secure a spot in the SEC Championship Game or the BCS Championship Game, the concern is valid.  The computer rankings, heavily tilted toward the Big XII conference, could stymie an 11-1 Razorback team from claiming any right to play for a national or league title.

Posted in Sports | Tagged: , , , , | 26 Comments »

Big 12 to Invite TCU Into the Fold?

Posted by Adam Butler on October 6, 2011

That was reportedly the Tweet this a.m. from Kirk Bohls of theAustin American-Statesman.

If true, the Horned Frogs should hop on this invitation.

Posted in Sports | Tagged: , | 3 Comments »

Ol’ Sarge Asks Questions

Posted by Brett Kincaid on September 28, 2011

In advance of the Southwest Classic, we’re going to engage in a little email exchange leading up to the game.  Both schools are coming off hugely disappointing losses.  Both schools entered the year with BCS expectations and a legitimate hope of making a run to the BCS National Championship game.  It looks like the latter of those is off the table, but the winner of this game keeps its hope alive for playing in one of the biggest games of the football postseason.

 

We asked Ol’ Sarge ’98 about the 2011 Southwest Classic yesterday, and today it’s his turn to ask a few questions.  Here’s a link to Part I if you’re behind.

OS98 - How do you think the Arkansas defense stacks up against the Aggie offense?  What is the biggest concern when it comes to stopping the Aggies?  Will both of your starting DEs be out this game, or will they be able to go?

BK – The Aggies provide multiple looks and do several things well, but what scares me most is their ability to run the football.  Better said, I’m worried about their ability to run the football on Arkansas.  The Aggies haven’t gotten on track yet rushing the football, at least statistically, but the talent is clearly on hand for Mike Sherman.  If the Razorbacks were at full speed on the front line, I’d be less concerned.  Losing Tank Wright (out with a broken arm) weakens the thinnest position on the defense.  With Jake Bequette’s status still up in the air, Arkansas will have very little experience on the edge.  While the defensive tackle spots are strong, teams will attack the Razorbacks on the edge.  The Hogs failed to keep Alabama linemen off our linebackers, and the ends couldn’t stand up to the beating the Tide inflicted.  I think Arkansas handled itself reasonably well on defense given circumstances and time on the field, but a week to gameplan an attack on the edge worries me.

OS98 – What is the outsider’s overall view of the Aggie Football Program and Mike Sherman as a head coach?

BK – As an SEC school, it’s hard not to look down our noses at anyone from another conference.  During the Franchione Era at College Station, it was particularly easy to do so when talking about Texas A&M.  I thought Sherman was a very surprising hire, but on balance I’m impressed with what he has done.  The Aggies are relevant again, which is the first step towards annual contention.  Arkansas made that turn a couple years ago, and I see the Aggies catching up quickly.

For me I keep wondering why the Aggies aren’t better.  They have facilities and athletes in their back yard.  The fanbase is extraordinarily loyal, and the legacy from the early-to-mid ‘90s was that of a fierce defense and powerful rushing attack.  What happened after R.C. Sclocum left?  It’s as if the Aggies shut down the program for a few years.  It is mystifying to me that a school with that much tradition, money, and location cannot create a perennial winner.  Perhaps moving to the SEC will up the Aggie street cred, giving Sherman and his coaches some additional swagger while battling for high school athletes in the state of Texas.

OS98 – What is the overall reaction by most Hog fans to the SEC adding Texas A&M to their ranks?

BK – While I’d say the overall reaction has been positive-to-lukewarm, I for one do not like it from a competitive point of view.  I think it makes a ton of sense, I like the addition of another SWC expatriate, and it’s nice to have a true rival for Arkansas in the league.  But I think this move ultimately hurts the Arkansas program.

The Hogs have always found success recruiting Texas, telling those bluechip athletes that they’d get to play on the biggest football stage in America.  Texas and Texas A&M have a lot to offer, but neither play in the SEC.  Well, that weapon is gone from the arsenal.  The Aggies now have the chance to get first crack at Texas prep stars that want to play in the SEC.  This will do nothing but hurt Arkansas recruiting in Texas.

It’s overlooked, but this recruiting problem presents itself in basketball and baseball, too.  The Aggies have nationally competitive programs in both of those sports – more so than football lately – and go head-to-head with the Razorbacks on the recruiting trail there, too.  While far from a death blow, the addition of Texas A&M to the SEC makes the jobs of Bobby Petrino, Mike Anderson, and Dave Van Horn that much more difficult.  A great league just got a lot better – and more competitive both on and off the field.


Here’s a look at the 1986 matchup between #17 Arkansas and #7 Texas A&M.


Posted in Sports | Tagged: , , , , , | 3 Comments »

Insight from an Aggie

Posted by Brett Kincaid on September 27, 2011

 

Here we go.  The last of the non-conference Aggies v. Razorbacks football games, and possibly the last one at Jerry World.  Let’s kick things off with a little Q&A from our friend Ol’ Sarge 98 who helped us quite a bit with tips and confirmations during the SECcession of Texas A&M.  He’s a good egg, even if misguided in his love for the poor saps from College Station.  Ol’ Sarge ’98 follows his maroon & white like we follow the Hogs, so you can bet he’s got some good, informed opinions about the state of the Aggies.

In advance of the Southwest Classic, we’re going to engage in a little email exchange leading up to the game.  Both schools are coming off hugely disappointing losses.  Both schools entered the year with BCS expectations and a legitimate hope of making a run to the BCS National Championship game.  It looks like the the latter of those is off the table, but the winner of this game keeps its hope alive for playing in one of the biggest games of the football postseason.

As sign of friendship to our Aggie friends, I offer this tribute to their stellar marching band.

 

BK - What is the atmosphere like around the program after Saturday’s crushing home loss?  How have the Sherman-coached Aggies responded to these situations in the past?  Any critical injuries we should know about?

OS98 – The atmosphere around the program Saturday night was one of bewilderment and disappointment.  To blow a 17-point lead, at home, is nearly unheard of.  For as good as the Aggies were in the first half, they were just as abysmal in the second half.  However, it took one phone call by Commissioner Slive on Sunday (with his subsequent visit to Aggieland on Monday) to help shorten our memories of Saturday’s debacle.  The last, complete meltdown at Kyle Field in recent memory is probably the Missouri game from last season, when the Ags were completely man-handled by an inferior team, mostly due to an ineffective QB and a defense that simply gave up.  The loss also capped a 3-game losing streak that had many Aggie fans wondering about Mike Sherman.  However, a QB switch the following week against Texas Tech changed the fortunes for the Aggies, and they rattled off 6-straight wins to end the regular season, including victories over highly ranked teams such as OU and Nebraska, along with an awe-inspiring come-from-behind win against the Robert Griffin, III-led Baylor Bears in Waco, and of course, spanking those t-sips in Austin on Thanksgiving night.  The hope is that, like last year, the Aggies can rebound from a complete debacle, but there is no need for a QB change.  The facts are that the Aggies are very talented on both sides of the ball, even more talented than they were last year (Von Miller’s departure not withstanding).  As for injuries, All-American WR Jeff Fuller continues to rebound from hamstring injury suffered during two-a-days, and he should be back close to 100%.  Speedy, go-to slot man Ryan Swope took a nasty shot against OSU on Saturday but was able to return to the game and has since practiced.  The only other real concern is that of our top cornerback Coryell Judie.  He, too, has a bad hammy and was unable to go against OSU (would’ve matched up against Blackmon).  If he is not available, then our secondary will definitely suffer for the second week in a row.

 

BK – How has the Aggie fanbase viewed the SW Classic over the past few years?  Is this seen as a big game or a distraction in the middle of conference play?

OS98 – Well, the game as whole has been viewed quite positively (though, we could use a win in this series).  The Aggies have long had an affinity for the SEC (and nearly followed Arkansas to the SEC back in the 90s, if not for the string-pulling of Ann Richards and Bob Bullock), and any chance to compete with an SEC team has always been welcomed.  One thing about Aggies, we love a good challenge. We may not always come out on top, but we are not going to shy away from taking our shots against an SEC opponent.  We are thankful to be joining the SEC next season, making this game against Arkansas a conference match-up with real implications.  Has this game been a distraction given its placement in on the calendar?  Nah, not a chance.

 

BK – What concerns you most about the Razorbacks heading into Saturday?

OS98 – Going into this season, I would’ve immediately said your RB scared the hell out of me.  With his unfortunate injury, though, I would say the Arkansas running game is not nearly as concerning as the passing game now.  This is especially magnified if Coryell Judie is unable to go Saturday morning.  If that’s the case, then it will be imperative for the Ags to get pressure on Tyler Wilson early and often to help our secondary in coverage.  We did this in the first half against OSU, but in the second half, QB pressure was nowhere to be found, and it cost us dearly.  I know that Arkansas has a solid defense, but I have confidence that we will score points.  The question will be whether or not we can keep Wilson from picking us apart with the Arkansas passing attack.

For the Hog fans, I give you a review of the 2009 Southwest Classic (and hopefully a preview of the 2011 game this weekend).

This is Part 1 of a Two-Part series of emails between Brett & Ol’ Sarge 98, a longtime Aggie fan & former student.  Check back on Wednesday for Part 2, which includes BK answering questions from OS98.

 

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The Last Non-Conference Southwest Classic

Posted by Brett Kincaid on September 26, 2011

It seems most everyone in Razorback Nation is still reeling from Saturday’s beatdown in Tuscaloosa.  That’s fine.  You get one day.  Then you need to sack up and get ready for the other 8 games on the Hogs schedule this year.

The second quarter of the Arkansas season begins this weekend in Dallas in the Southwest Classic against former SWC foe Texas A&M.  We can officially jettison that modifier after this game, though, because Texas A&M has finally been officially accepted as a new member in the SEC.  As you are no doubt tired of hearing us say, we brought you this story long before the MSM jumped on the bandwagon.  Our reporting on this started back on August 9 thanks to good sources in Aggieland.

The SEC announced the move will be effective next July, and said Texas A&M will participate in all sports during the 2012-13 academic year. That gives the SEC 13 members and its first addition since South Carolina and Arkansas in 1992.

The Aggies’ defection from the Big 12 had been held up by the possibility of legal action from Baylor and other members. The statement released by the SEC did not mention that situation, and spokesman Charles Bloom said he could not comment.

Of the many questions yet to be answered regarding the look of the SEC next season is this:  What will become of the Southwest Classic?  This is the third year of a 10 year deal to play the non-conference game in Dallas at Jerry World.  Will the game continue to be played at  neutral site even as a conference game?  I don’t like that idea.  As conference members, the fans of both schools deserve a game at home and a chance to visit the other school’s venue.  Both Reynolds Razorback Stadium and Kyle Field offer electric atmospheres for college football.

I’m also eager to get the perspective from Mike Anderson and Dave Van Horn.  The Aggies have built elite basketball and baseball programs, both of whom will cycle onto the Razorbacks schedules.  I for one am thrilled that the deal is done and welcome the Aggies to the SEC.

Posted in Sports | Tagged: , , , , , | 7 Comments »

Look…..Here Comes The Mainstream Media

Posted by Adam Butler on September 20, 2011

A report out of Kansas City today indicates that Missouri has an SEC offer in hand.

Other than a grudging nod at the irony of this report (given the fact the reason for the Mizzou invite is the SEC’s desire to pull in the K.C. and St. Louis media markets) forgive us for yawning.

We have sort of grown tired with the SEC expansion story, as we have been waiting for weeks months for the mainstream media to catch up with us.

We told you on August 9, 2011, that Texas A&M would be the 13th SEC team and that Missouri would be the 14th unless it botched the move.  The mainstream media thought we had jumped the gun on A&M, but, as we told you, it was all about the order of operations.

As native Arkansan and Hall of Fame St. Louis Cardinal Dizzy Dean once said, “It ain’t braggin’ if you really done it.”.

Posted in News, Sports | Tagged: , , , , | 2 Comments »

Should Texas Change from Burnt Orange to Yellow?

Posted by Brett Kincaid on September 14, 2011

Great column today from Clay Travis at OutKicktheCoverage.com (a ridiculous name because outkicking the coverage is a bad thing) regarding the timid, scared Texas Longhorns.  Travis writes about Texas and their new flirtation with the ACC, noting that the most sensible location for UT long-term is the SEC.  Yet, the Shortwhorns apparently have no interest in competing with the big boys.

The reason is simple, the Texas Longhorn administration, would-be bullies, are scared to play in the nation’s best football conference. As the Longhorns latest soap opera destination appears to be the ACC – Chip Brown at Orangebloods.com had this story first – this means that the Longhorns have four potential destinations right now: remain in the Big 12 with new teams added, leave with Oklahoma and Oklahoma State for the Pac 12, join the ACC, or go independent.

Adding Texas would be a coup for the SEC, but as Travis notes the arrogant, elite Texas boosters could not stomach being treated equally.  Sure, Bama still has a lot of sway at the SEC office.  But financially the Tide gets the same cut as Vanderbilt.  Texas could never stand for that.

Posted in Sports | Tagged: , , , , | 3 Comments »

Baylor Kicking and Screaming

Posted by Brett Kincaid on September 7, 2011

SI.com

News outlets from coast-to-coast report this morning that Texas A&M plans to announce its move to the SEC later today.  We had that last night, but we are now retracting that report.  Word leaked late last night but we could not confirm until this morning:  Baylor has threatened legal action if Texas A&M leaves the Big XII.

The SEC met last night with plans to accept the Aggies into the league, but that vote was postponed when the league received word that one of the Big XII member institutions rescinded its vote to allow Texas A&M to leave.  We have learned today that Baylor is that school.

From CBSSports.com:

“After receiving unanimous written assurance from the Big 12 on September 2 that the Southeastern Conference was free to accept Texas A&M to join as a new member, the presidents and chancellors of the SEC met last night with the intention of accepting the application of Texas A&M to be the newest member of the SEC,” Machen said. “We were notified yesterday afternoon that at least one Big 12 institution had withdrawn its previous consent and was considering legal action.

“The SEC has stated that to consider an institution for membership, there must be no contractual hindrances to its departure.  The SEC voted unanimously to accept Texas A&M University as a member upon receiving acceptable reconfirmation that the Big 12 and its members have reaffirmed the letter dated September 2, 2011.”

Yet again, we face more delays in this ridiculous drama.  One of these days it will be done, but right now Baylor needs to throw its temper tantrum.  I feel the need to point out that Baylor’s university president is Kenneth Starr.  Yep…THAT Kenneth Starr.  So much for free markets…

UPDATE I (8:57am) – Our best source in Aggieland confirms what we thought: This is a money grab from Baylor.  If Baylor keeps this up, Shiloh Christian may change its colors to green and gold.  The schools already have a lot in common.

UPDATE II (9:22am) – Very good source that just told me Texas A&M has received a letter (ransom note?) in the last 20 minutes that says Baylor will not prevent the move.  Evidently Baylor administrators (notably Ken Starr) and business leaders in Waco have been told in no certain terms that they need to get in line.

This is solid.  It has happened.  Texas A&M will make an official announcement today assuming the lawyers sign off on everything.  A press conference had been planned already, so it seems likely that the school will continue with its previous press event.

UPDATE III (2:14pm) – The fur is flying in Texas today.  Apparently our source earlier was correct to a degree, but the ransom note sent by Baylor to Texas A&M has a ton of conditions.  The Aggies apparently cannot drop off a bag full of money in a parking lot at the Waco Walmart.  A conference call today among Big XII leaders did little to assure the Aggies that all will be well.  I’m growing more and more confident that this ends up in front of a judge somewhere.

Posted in Sports | Tagged: , , , , | 13 Comments »

Farmers Flight

Posted by Brett Kincaid on September 6, 2011

Hey SEC, can we play?

There goes the neighborhood…

It looks like the Aggies to the SEC saga is entering its final week.  Exactly four weeks ago we told you that Texas A&M would head to the SEC, abandoning a failing Big XII and its long standing traditions with Texas.  (Sub in “Arkansas” for Texas A&M and “SWC” for Big XII, and this story could have been written more than 20 years ago.)  According to Andy Staples at Sports Illustrated, one of college football’s messiest divorces of all time could be finalized in the next 24 hours.

Reports today tell us that the SEC presidents are scheduled to meet tonight to vote on adding a new member.  Nine of the 12 SEC university presidents must vote to approve a new member, and it is widely believed that will happen.  Of course, Texas A&M appears to be that new member.

Staples takes time to explore the looming changes this move will almost certainly set in motion.  Are 16-team conferences on the horizon?

Let’s hop in the time machine and travel back to July 2010. In an interview with SI.com, the Pac-12′s Scott explained that he believed superconferences would eventually form. “Something like that is bound to happen at some stage,” Scott said 14 months ago. Why? Because when he floated the idea in 2010, Scott found that television executives loved it. “What you couldn’t predict is what fan reaction would be, what media reaction would be and how the TV executives who would ultimately have to stroke some big checks would react,” Scott said. “That was the part that was very pleasing. I got contacted by every major TV network in the country.”

Lots of eyeballs on Atlanta today, where the meeting of the SEC presidents has been scheduled.  We’ll let you know what we hear.

UPDATE I (3:51pm) – One source in Aggieland tells us that a press conference has already been scheduled for tomorrow in College Station, presumably to announce that Texas A&M will join the SEC as the league’s 13th member.

UPDATE II (9:35pm) – Word is filtering out tonight that the Aggies have received the requisite votes needed to become the SEC’s 13th member.  David Sandhop over at Aggie Websider has some details.

 

Posted in Sports | Tagged: , , , , | 3 Comments »

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