Home Sweet Home
Posted by Brett Kincaid on August 15, 2012
This is the 14th in our series of 30 Thoughts on Razorback Football in 30 Days.
Aside from the off-the-field turmoil that plagued Arkansas during the offseason
, the fact that both Alabama and LSU visit Fayetteville this season dominated much of the discussion. With an experienced team coming back to The Hill, many Hog fans see this as a favorable schedule for Arkansas to make a run to the SEC and BCS titles. Common thought suggests that having these games played in the Natural State gives Arkansas a distinct advantage to win its first division title since 2006. But is conventional wisdom right? History tells us that may not be the case.
To start, Arkansas has not beaten both SEC West heavyweights in the same season since 2000. Arkansas split the two games en route to division titles in 2002 and 2006. While none of the three teams appear as talented in those seasons as the squads that will hit the field in 2012, assuming Arkansas has a far better chance of success beating both this year may not be the safest assumption to make.
There are signs of optimism, though. Among other things, no one in his or her right mind would prefer to play these two behemoths on the road. Arkansas was swept on the road by LSU and Bama in 2005, 2009 and again last year. If Arkansas hopes to make a run to Atlanta this season, they must at minimum split the two games. Getting both in Arkansas certainly improves their chances. A regular season-capping win over LSU in 2010 sent the Hogs to the Sugar Bowl. All things being equal, winning one and losing one against these two teams should put the Razorbacks in great position to return to a BCS game.
Given all the turmoil of the offseason, reaching the BCS would be a tremendous accomplishment. This team believes it has a greater destiny, though, and lining up with the Tide and the Tigers in Fayetteville gives Arkansas its best chance of sweeping both teams for the first time since Bill Clinton occupied the White House. In this case, home field is less the advantage as playing on the road is a disadvantage.
It will be a good season if…
Arkansas manages to prove the critics wrong and beat both Alabama and LSU this year. A split gives Arkansas a chance to do something special, but winning both means an almost certain trip to Atlanta.
It will be a bad season if…
Arkansas once again fails to capitalize on its good fortune of getting both teams in the Natural State. Losing both games means this talented crop of Razorbacks will have once again missed its chance to reach its full potential.
Andrew C. Thompson said
Great look at the Bama/LSU dynamic, but I have to take exception to one point. I’m not so sure we can say that “it will be a bad season” if we lose to both Bama and LSU on the face of it. That certainly heads us down the road to unfulfilled potential for this team, but let’s say we lose to both of those teams and win out the rest of the schedule. Would another 10-2 regular season record be a “bad season” given the offseason turmoil that you point out has occurred? I know y’all are following the “good season if…” and “bad season if…” model in this series of posts, but would it not be more accurate to say that it would be a bad season if we lose to the two behemoths, and then lose another road game or two besides — thus knocking us down to the ranks of the Music City Bowl or Liberty Bowl? I’d have a hard time calling a 10-2 finish and another possible trip to Dallas as a bad season, all things considered. Maybe that is the highest we can expect in terms of potential at this point, no?
Brett Kincaid said
I think that’s a fair point. My hunch is that we drop at least one road game along the way, meaning losses to both Bama and LSU set up a 9-3 season at best. While that’s not a ‘bad” season by most standards, I thnk it qualifies for this team given its talent and expectations.
Adam Butler said
I actually think we split Bama (loss) and LSU but lose at least 1 road game and probably 2.
That would be a bittersweet season.
Papa J said
Very nice series of articles so far…
Glad the BlogHawgs are back!
Keep ‘em coming!
TAFKAPapa J
Brett Kincaid said
It’s good to be back.
Kriss Kriss makes me want to jump, jump said
I actually “don’t” want to head to Atlanta. I think it’s an extra tough game that BAMA has already shown you don’t have to play in order to win the NC. IF we split BAMA/LSU and win our road games (not likely, but not a HUGE if) then that situation sets up perfectly.
Jim Gooch said
It’s ABSOLUTELY a bad season if we lose to both LSU and Alabama. When are we ever going to have this much talent on offense and have both of them at home while they are both serious title contenders?
If this were 2009 or 2010, losing to both would not be a bad season. But we have come too far and accomplished too much. The bar is higher and it bloody-well should be. No excuses. Failure is not simply about losing; it’s about not living up to your potential. We have the potential to beat them both this year and it’s the only thing we have not accomplished thus far. Therefore, to fall short again is failure, considering our considerable potential.
Adam Butler said
Good post, Gooch.
Jim Gooch said
I tried to be negative but it came out positive. Strange.
Silent Krisidity said
I *gulp* agree with you, Gooch.
Wow. That wasn’t as hard as I thought it would be.