GAME SKETCH

• Line: Arkansas (+2.5) vs. Texas A&M – (game played in Arlington, TX)
• Kickoff: 11:00am CDT (Televised nationally on ESPN with Dave Pasch on PBP, Chris Speilman & Urban Meyer providing color analysis, and Shelley Smith on the sideline)
• Weather:  Game Played Indoors (Outside: Expected high of 83-degrees with mostly sunny skies)
• Streaks: Arkansas has won the first two meetings between these clubs in the Southwest Classic.

This could easily be dubbed the Hangover Bowl, brought you by Excedrin & Gatorade.  Both teams are coming off different but equally devastating losses in marquee matchups last weekend.  We all know about the Hogs destruction in Tuscaloosa at the hands of Alabama.  While the Razorbacks were getting pantsed on national television, the Aggies were suffering a humiliation all their own on ABC’s regional coverage.  Up by 17 points at halftime, Texas A&M failed to put away Oklahoma State ultimately falling 30-29 at Kyle Field.

Now both teams have to find their ways to Arlington, Texas, and hope to rebuild their egos after losses that derailed any hopes of national championships for either team.

It seems most folks have pointed towards the intangibles this week.  Who can rally quickest?  Which team shook off the defeat and “wants it” more?  Can Arkansas defend the honor of the SEC against the conference’s newest member?  Is Texas A&M ready to show the world it can compete in their new conference home?

I think that’s all nonsense.  Those factors may affect players in their preparation, but when the whistle is blown and the ball is in the air, it’s all about which of these teams is able to establish the run, stop the other team from running, and make big plays.  In the end, it’s just another football game.

Why Arkansas should win:  Head coach Bobby Petrino brings an NFL mentality to Arkansas, meaning that he expects his team to forget losses and get ready for the next week.  His players know that, which is why they called a players-only meeting on Sunday.  Egos need to be checked at the door because starting jobs are on the line.  It’s been a solid week of practice in Fayetteville, and reports have this team ready to go.

On the field, how can you not love Tyler Wilson right now?  The redshirt junior took a huge beating in Alabama and hung in there until coaches forced him from the game in the fourth quarter.  Despite throwing a game-changing interception (upon reviewing the film, it looks like Greg Childs shoulders a lot of blame on that play), Wilson earned enormous respect from his teammates and coaches.  The offensive line couldn’t block a box turtle, but Wilson managed to complete 22 of 35 passes for 185 yards and two scores.  With no run defense and no legitimate chances to throw the ball downfield, Wilson’s numbers look far better than they do upon first glance.  A team needs a leader like that for a game like this.

The biggest reason for optimism, though, is this:  The Aggies aint the Crimson Tide.  Texas A&M does have a solid run defense, but the stats are a bit misleading.  The Aggies give up a staggeringly low 60.3 yards/game (6^th in the nation) and 1.9 yards/carry (4^th in the nation).  Those are Bama numbers.  But remember this:  Oklahoma State played behind most of the game, attempting twice as many passes and rushes.  In their other two games, Texas A&M raced out to big leads forcing Idaho and SMU to put the ball in the air rather than run.

Through the air, the Aggies give up 279 passing yards each game.  That ranks 100^th in the nation.  Those are not Bama numbers.

Given Bobby Petrino’s and Garrick McGee’s abilities to magnify their opponents’ defensive weaknesses, I like the odds of Arkansas attacking the Texas A&M defensive soft spot.  Petrino has proven that he will pass the ball if the rush isn’t working, meaning more opportunities for Joe Adams and Jarius Wright to get the ball in space and Cobi Hamilton to stretch the field.

On the defensive side of the ball, Arkansas played damn well last week considering they played without Tank Wright and Jake Bequette.  While Wright is definitely out and Bequette does not look likely to play a lot – if at all – this weekend, coaches have been able to adjust their plans accordingly.  Alabama did not score in the fourth quarter, despite the fact starters Trent Richardson and A.J. McCarron played until the final Bama series of the game.  This defense is still quite good, even if they are a bit thin on experience at the defensive end position.

If the Arkansas defense plays up to its talent level and the offensive line gives Tyler Wilson time to throw downfield, the Hogs will be back on track, and on their way to a BCS opportunity.

Why Texas A&M should win:  The Aggie defense is really good.  You can play with numbers all you want, but the truth is that the Wrecking Crew may be making a comeback in College Station.  Sean Porter is a legit pass rusher, leading a defense that tops the country with 4.7 sacks/game.  Head coach

#10 Sean Porter

Mike Sherman wants his Aggie defenders to pin their ears back and meet in the offensive backfield, and that’s exactly what they do.  Even in their loss to Oklahoma State, the defense was good enough to win for Texas A&M in the first half.  They allowed only 170 yards from scrimmage and just 3 points.  OSU made adjustments to win in the second half, but I fully expect the Aggies to make their own adjustments and be much better this weekend.

Offensively, this is a completely different team than Arkansas faced last year.  Ryan Tannehill is a difference maker as a dual-threat quarterback.  If Arkansas continues to struggle reaching the quarterback with its own pass rush, Tannehill could have a field day.  The Dan Patrick Show’s Andrew Perloff reports that at least one NFL evaluator likes Tannehill as the second QB off the board in the April draft after Andrew Luck.  The guy is legit.

Cyrus Gray and Chrsitne Michael provide an SEC-caliber 1-2 punch at the running back position, and Ryan Swope will almost certainly have a long career in the NFL.  When all facets are working together, the Aggie offense is as explosive as any we’ve ever seen out of College Station.  The Arkansas defense is vastly improved over the past 3 seasons, but they will be tested on every snap tomorrow.

If the Aggies can find balance offensively and get to the quarterback on defense, the Aggies will win this game by two touchdowns.

And the Winner Is…

I don’t know that we’ll find a more difficult game to predict this year.  Both teams provide tremendous question marks based on their dismal performance last week.  Arkansas looked outgunned and out-talented at Alabama, while Texas A&M collapsed in the second half and showed no killer instinct.  Both have scads of talent, yet both look uncomfortable dealing with high expectations.

For three years running I’ve had a bad feeling about this game, and the first two years it proved to be nothing more than five days of anxiety.  Because of that I’ve asked Adam to pick the winner this week.  (If it were up to me and my pessimism this week, I’d probably say Aggies 37, Hogs 24 – and feel like I gave Arkansas too much credit.)  Adam is a bit more clear-headed this week, so I prefer trusting his judgment.

Expect a back-and-forth game in the first half as both squads get their legs back.   The early start will also contribute to particularly sloppy play in the first quarter.  Much like 2009, though, the key will be a defensive touchdown for Arkansas.  After the Hogs stop an Aggie drive by forcing that turnover, Tannehill will overcompensate and throw an interception – this time deep in Aggie territory.

Meanwhile Tyler Wilson will put up an efficient 350 yards passing despite continued struggles on the ground for the Hogs.  Ronnie Wingo and Dennis Johnson will combine for just 118 yards on the ground, but it will be enough to keep the heat of Wilson.  I expect a solid game from Tannehill outside of the gaffe, and Cyrus Gray will end up with 153 yards on the ground with a TD – and a critical fumble that leads directly to Razorback points.  It’ll be an exciting and ugly game that ultimately ends with a Razorback win.  Arkansas 38, Texas A&M 28