The Blog Hawgs

Defense Wins Championships.

Saying that phrase is cliché’ is like suggesting “Throwing someone under the bus” and “Jumping the Shark” have, well, Jumped the Shark. But, like most oft-used expressions–it’s true.

Contrary to popular belief, last year proved the point. Yes, Auburn and Oregon averaged 42 and 49 points per game, respectively, but it was the Tigers’ sometimes suspect defense that brought home the hardware, holding The Ducks 30 points below their season average on the way to the BCS championship.

The good news for Arkansas is that after being downright offensive when head coach Bobby Petrino and defensive coordinator Willy Robinson took over in 2008, the Razorbacks defense has the swagger and talent to be one of the best units in the nation.

Dismiss the thought as blatant homerism if you must but consider: Arkansas returns 7 starters from a defense that was the SEC leader in 3rd down conversion percentage (8th in the nation) second in the SEC in sacks (2.85) (12th in the nation) 3rd in the SEC tackles for loss, (7.31)(13th in nation) and 20th in the nation in passing yards allowed per game.

While stats can admittedly be deceiving, peers and pundits can often be a good talent barometer, too. . And, for the first time in a long time, they have forecast thunder and lightning from the Razorbacks defense as six different Razorback defenders have been named to either the AP or Coaches All-SEC teams. (DE Jake Bequette, LB Jerry Franklin, safety Tramain Thomas, defensive end Tenarius Wright and linebacker Jerico Nelson).

Interestingly though, two guys who aren’t on either list–JUCO defensive tackle transfer Robert Thomas and blue-chip cornerback turned occasional enigma Darius Winston–may be the key to Arkansas’ defense climbing from good to great. (SEE BELOW)

Rather than provide a position-by-position, 3-deep breakdown of the defense I have instead limited my analysis to a more reader-friendly format. You can thank me later.

Arkansas’ Defense Will be Dominant If…..

JUCO transfer Robert Thomas is as good as advertised. Yes, I have been guilty in the past of over-hyping physically freakish JUCO transfers in this space. The name Anthony Leon comes to mind. But Thomas seems different. Longtime observers of Arkansas practice–guys that can unblinkingly be dubbed experts in the field of Razorback football–have emerged from Fall practices touting Thomas as not only a great player–but the best player on the Arkansas roster.

If Thomas “merely” produces well enough to make the postseason All-SEC lists, Arkansas should have one of the Top 20 overall defenses in the country. If–as some trained, but typically conservative observers think–he is a SEC Defensive Player of the Year caliber talent, then the Arkansas defense could be one of the best in the country–the type that goes on the road in the SEC in hostile venues and emerges with wins.

Arkansas’ Defense Will Be a Disappointment If…..

It does not continue to develop swagger on the road.

Let’s be honest. Arkansas has enough talent on both sides of the ball (and on special teams) and enough meat on the bone during the middle of the year that it should have another very solid season. But, the true measure of this team will be how it performs during two road trips–Tuscaloosa and Baton Rouge–that bookend the SEC season.

If–as Arkansas believes–it has the luxury of having the most interior line depth it has had on campus in many years–the Hogs should be able to stop the run without loading the box (ie bringing an 8th defender close to the line of scrimmage). This would force Bama and LSU to throw the ball down the field to be successful. That is not something that those run-dominant offenses want to do.

The Hogs played well enough and made enough crucial defensive plays to win on the road against a trio of emerging programs last season (USCE, MSU and Texas A&M) and another traditional blue blood (UGA) but spit the bit during two halves (2nd half at Auburn and 1st half of the Sugar Bowl) dredging up old memories of lumbering running backs breaking off career long runs.

To avoid similar dream-ending snafus, the rotating defensive tackle sixtet of Thomas, Byran and Dede Jones, Alfred Davis, Zach Stadther and Lavunce Askew will have to be a force. The good news for Razorback fans is that it should be.

The One Defensive Player Arkansas Can Least Afford to Lose Is…..

linebacker Jerry Franklin.

Franklin has spent time in and out of Head Coach Bobby Petrino’s doghouse during his career at Arkansas. But, in the meantime, he has managed to lead the UA in tackles for 3 straight seasons–a feat that has only been accomplished one other time at Arkansas since 1960.

Franklin won’t wow you with any facet of his game. He isn’t the fastest linebacker you’ve ever seen and he isn’t the hardest hitter you will run across. But, there is something to be said for knowing where you need to be, getting there and making the tackle–even if it’s ugly.

Making Franklin even more indispensable is that during his career he has logged playing time at each of the three linebacker positions and his backups at middle linebacker Terrell Williams and Braylon Mitchell don’t have much SEC experience.

The Player With the Most Potential For Arkansas Fans to Either Love or Hate Is…..

Darius Winston.

Arkansas fans love to hate cornerbacks–even the good ones. Recent examples include Ahmad “Batman” Carroll, Lawrence Richardson and Ramon Broadway. Winston is well on his way to adding his name to this list.

Don’t get me wrong. I think the proverbial light bulb came on at the end of last year for Winston. He was left on an island during the second half of the Sugar Bowl and he availed himself well in both pass coverage and run support (an area where he had been lacking earlier in his career). I expect him to be an asset this season.

Now, though, the question with Winston is whether he can become a consistent force that takes away half of the field. If the answer is no, and he again displays tantalizing glimpses of greatness only to be followed by head-scratching missed assignments, Arkansas fans have shown they will turn on him.

Likewise, if he is perfect 99 times, and gives up 1 deep ball, Arkansas fans will turn on him. So, the moral of the story is that Arkansas fans are going gripe about Winston and any other defensive back that has the audacity to play a very visible position less than perfectly.

That’s why Winston might as well make the leap, live up to his five-star talent, become a early-round NFL draft pick at some point in the future and wonder, on the way between trips to the bank, why Arkansas fans can’t wrap their minds around the fact that cornerbacks aren’t the only players that occasionally get beat by the guy across from them who also happens to be a scholarship SEC athlete.

Arkansas’ Defense Will Put The Razorbacks in Position to Win the SEC West If…..

it gives up fewer than 45 combined points at Alabama and LSU.

If you think that’s a stretch, consider that Arkansas gave up 47 combined to those teams a year ago, and although those games were played in Arkansas, both Alabama and LSU have significant concerns at quarterback.

Bama is relying on a 2-quarterback system with a redshirt freshman (Phillip Sims–no relation to former NFLer and current CBS NFL analyst Phil Simms) and a A.J.McCarron, a guy who was so bad in mop top up duty last year that Alabama Head Coach Nick Saban LITERALLY spanked him on the sidelines.

Meanwhile, in Red Stick, the Tigers will be relying on a would-be 3-year starter that just allegedly hit his first target in years (Jordan Jefferson), a loyal redshirt senior with some experience, albeit mostly of the interception-throwing, character-building variety (Jarrett Lee), and a JUCO transfer who, depending upon whom you ask is either a sexual batterer or a kid who just happened to grope an unwilling women the first time he drank alcohol (Zack Mettenberger).

In other words, neither Bama nor LSU’s offense should be vintage. If the Hogs are going to return to a BCS game and/or contend for the SEC West (and thereby the BCS) title they will have to capitalize by limiting big plays and ending the annual game of “What If?” that Razorback fans seemingly have had to play every time Arkansas has had a chance at a national championship since 1964.