Gift(ed) or De-Knile?: Breaking Down Arkansas’ RB Options Following Knile Davis’ Injury.
Posted by Adam Butler on August 16, 2011
I wanted to take a break from your regularly scheduled Texas A&M to the SEC coverage to take a look at a position that, following last week’s unfortunate, sickening, season-ending ankle injury to Arkansas All SEC running back Knile Davis, has become a position of concern.
The good news is that unlike years past (such as when UA WR Marcus Monk was injured in the preseason prior to his senior year) the Hogs feel that they have positioned themselves to absorb such a big loss by reloading with talented replacements and pulling production from other areas (WRs, an improved defense and special teams).
But is it really possible to replace the production of a player of Davis’ caliber?
A pessimistic Hog fan would tell you that it isn’t considering that the Arkansas offense ran through Knile for the last 2/3rds of last season. An optimist would counter that UA Head Coach Bobby Petrino has overcome a similar injury before (running back Michael Bush at Louisville and more recently wide receiver Greg Childs, here).
It’s worth noting that at this time last year, Knile was probably 3rd or 4th in a 4-horse race, Dennis Johnson was on the Doak Walker Award Watch List and Ronnie Wingo was widely considered the most physically talented running back on the Arkansas roster.
But that was then and this is now and here are the candidates to fill the void left by Davis’ injury.
DENNIS JOHNSON:
Why He May Be The Answer:
Johnson, a 5’9 213 pound Junior from Texarkana, AR, is an old hand at this point who has shown glimpses of greatness, rushing for 107 yards at #1 Florida in 2009 and popping LSU for 400 total All Purpose Yards combined in 2008 and 2009. He is also Arkansas’ all time Kickoff Return yardage leader (2,014) and is 8th in SEC History in that category. He is a tough runner with enough speed to take it the distance.
Why He May Not Be The Answer:
The corollary to a statement about a player showing glimpses of greatness is that he has been unable, as yet, to consistently perform. DJ fits that bill for a number of reasons.
Johnson has his own injury demons to overcome. He suffered a bowel injury in Week 2 last season and was out for the remainder of the year. And, although no one has acknowledged it explicitly, there have been times that Johnson has been in and out of Petrino’s dog house. Many Arkansas fans called for Johnson to be anointed the feature running back prior to last season and, even before injury, he was not.
That may have been a matter of practice performance.. Petrino recently commented that Johnson’s attitude might not have been ideal in the spring. That is understandable considering DJ undoubtedly had bumps in the road in terms of what he could do or was allowed to do in spring practice following such a brutal injury.
But, when asked in the wake of the Davis injury about whether Petrino might take him off of kickoff return to try and preserve his health, Johnson told reporters that if he did, Johnson would have to have a one-on-one meeting with Petrino. That sounds like a potentially strained player-coach relationship waiting to happen–particularly if Johnson does not seize the starting running back job early in the season and get the bulk of the carries.
RONNIE WINGO
Why He May Be The Answer:
Wingo has a world of talent. At 6’3, 231 lbs and a 4.3 second 40-yard dash, Wingo is a combine freak. And, as opponents seemed to learn on a weekly basis last year, he has very good hands and is a real home run threat in the passing game. Wingo has played in all 26 games during his 2 years on campus and has 6 starts. Thus far, he has rushed for 572 yards on just 90 carries for an average of 6.35 yards per carry. Wingo has also caught 32 passes for 373 yards and five touchdowns in his career.
Why He May Not Be the Answer:
Wingo has had an obvious tendency to tip toe and dance instead of finding the hole, making a move and using his wealth of size and speed to get up field and gain the most possible yards. Wingo reportedly made significant strides in this area in the spring and it showed during Arkansas’ Spring Game when he was a more physical, punishing presence and rushed for 62 yards and 1 touchdown on 11 carries. By comparison, Johnson, playing on the same team in the scrimmage, had 56 net yards and a TD on 14 carries.
Unfortunately, old habits are hard to kick, and Wingo won’t truly shed the tag of a guy who is a dancer until he goes to Tuscaloosa and gets tough yardage to go along with his usual big plays.
KODY WALKER
Why He May Be The Answer:
Well, let’s be honest. Walker isn’t THE answer, but he could be part of it. He is listed at 6’1, 235 pounds with 4.6 40-yard dash speed. But, unlike Wingo, and the injured (and also out for 2011) Broderick Green, who has been Arkansas’ short yardage back the last few years, Walker actually runs bigger than his size, and that is saying something considering the fact that he is a big back.
Walker could develop into a trusted source of tough yards in short yardage situations. He could also spell Wingo and Johnson late in games–a situation when, with a lead, Petrino likes to pound opposing defenses (as he did LSU last season in Little Rock).
Why He May Not Be The Answer:
Walker, a true freshman, isn’t in Jeff City, anymore. If he is going to contribute, he will have to a learn on the fly, and, as a member of a championship caliber team, won’t be afforded the luxury of being able to get away with very many rookie mistakes. And, he is not a big play threat. He isn’t going to outrun defensive backs in the SEC. Arkansas will have to pick its spots with Walker, or its running game will be somewhat limited.
KELVIN FISHER
Why He May Be The Answer:
Like Walker, Fisher a true freshman, cannot be (and isn’t) expected to be THE answer. But, there is a reason why he was recently moved to running back from defensive back when Knile went down. He is small for a running back–6’0, 180 lbs–but he is very fast and athletic. I could see Arkansas sprinkling him into the offense in some of the same ways Florida used Percy Harvin during the CFBBJ era.
Why He May Not Be The Answer:
Fisher is small and is not going to be an every down back. Arkansas can’t have him in there picking up blitzes and trying to save Tyler Wilson’s back side.
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Arkansas will miss Knile. It would be virtually impossible to not miss a player with his talent and accomplishments. But, it is reasonable to think the remaining running backs could combine for something in the range of 1,700 rushing yards and 15-18 TDs.
Given the quality athleticism and experience from 1-85 on the Arkansas roster, if the Hogs get that kind of production from the running backs, the Hogs will be right in the mix in the SEC West, which means they will be right in the mix on the national scene.
9 Responses to “Gift(ed) or De-Knile?: Breaking Down Arkansas’ RB Options Following Knile Davis’ Injury.”
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BwoT said
Geez. I forgot about Brodrick Green being out too.
It kind of sucks getting my magnet schedule in the mail with my tickets and seeing a big Knile Davis pic. Jinx?
Jim Gooch said
I think Knile is worth 2 games. My expectations went from 11-1 to 9-3, maybe 8-4. But I like to be brutally honest with myself whenever possible.
It is sickening though. But also typical.
Adam Butler said
Which 2 games did it cost them?
Jim Gooch said
I think Alabama will be a loss either way. So the obvious answer would be LSU and A&M, but things rarely work out so neatly. I think we have A&M’s number. So I am going to say that we lose, in addition to Alabama (which I predicted to be a loss with Knile), two home games – South Carolina and Mississippi St. Then we get a desperation win at LSU to round out the 9-3 season.
Sickening.
Brain said
Bobby has methodically built this team (off/def/ST) since he was hired in December 2008. Bobby will find a way to move the ball and get points on the board.
People are underestimating the potential of the defense to carry their share of the burden this year. From 2009 to 2010 our D went from:
Points per game (national rank): 25.8 (62) to 22.8 (45)
Yards per game: 401.8 (90) to 339.8ypg (34)
Our competetion:
2009 – ‘Bama – 11.0ppg (1) 241.7ppg (2); LSU – 16.0ppg (12) 326.6ypg (28)
2010 – ‘Bama – 14.1ppg (5) 296ypg (6); LSU -17.8 (9) 301.7ypg (8)
If this D continues to trend lower (not a stretch given we lost nothing major in the front 7), it will help make up for this 2-3 games lost by losing Knile. Cut off 3 points per game and 20 yards per game, you are approaching a top 20 scoring and yards D. 5 points get you to a top 10 scoring D (Based on last year’s stats.)
Now, I know this D will not be as good as either of the aforementioned teams. But, would any of you choose their offenses over ours without Knile?
Oh, and the only change on special teams is replacing the deep snapper. All the “skill” players are back.
I think the only thing the loss of Knile ensures is an L in Tuscaloosa. Other than that, I don’t see where it turns South Carolina or Auburn coming into Fayetteville into sure losses or Mississippi St in the Rock a loss.
Brain said
Failed to mention LSU and A&M: To me, the loss of Knile makes it a probable split between LSU and A&M to sit at a second consecutive 10 win season.
Blog Hawgs Senior Pessimestic Running Back Correspondent Kris Boyd said
I completely agree with Brain. My prediction pre-Knile-injury was 10-2 with good possibility of 12-0. My prediction post-Knile-injury is still 10-2, but a solid 10-2… no chance at 12-0.
BwoT said
Brain is pulling out the stats. Football season must be right around the corner.
Proving Its Points–2011 Arkansas Razorbacks Offensive Preview « The Blog Hawgs said
[...] has all the talent in the world, and as we have discussed in this space, he has shown it at times. But, he has also been prone to dancing and softness. Reports out of Fall Camp, and Wingo’s [...]