The Blog Hawgs

It seems like just yesterday that I was using this space to ponder the impact of Ryan Mallett’s decision to return for his junior season at Arkansas. The piece was a joy to write–mainly because it was Razorback related and it something different–a homework assignment of sorts that was actually a response to a catalytic email from my old friend–the real right Reverend–Andrew C. Thompson.

In it I responded to a number of probing questions from Andrew about the impact of Mallett’s return and realistic expectations for the Hogs in 2010. And, As Andrew pointed out in his postseason reevaluation  (Humblebrag Alert!!) I was pretty accurate–especially for a guy whose sports writing claim to fame is, well, a microscopically niche Razorback (and other stuff)  blog and an aptly (but poorly?) named tri-monthy column featuring an overuse of parentheses and commas.

Eighteen months have passed since the original “essay” and a lot has changed in BlogHawg Nation and the world. Osama bin Laden is dead. The only Americans under 50 without a “Dr.” before their name or a “III” after it that can get a great loan are Auburn recruits. And, the Hogs enjoyed a lemonade stand 2010 season–it was very refreshing, but left us all thirsting for more.

So now, just 8 months removed from when Andrew provided me with his latest homework assignment, it seems like a perfect time for another  preseason Arkansas Football exam/prospectus of sorts.

In other words, “Who got a Scantron for Adam Butler?” The right Reverend Andrew Thompson. That’s who.

AT: Do you see Tyler Wilson as the odds-on favorite to be starting QB in 2011? And what do you think his strengths and weaknesses are in comparison to Mallett in running Bobby Petrino’s offense?

AB: If Wilson is healthy, he will be the starting QB. UA Head Coach Bobby Petrino, as he did when the job was presumptively Mallett’s to lose 2 years ago, is saying all the right things about it being undecided. At the time it was posed, this was a fair question, But, at this point, even SEC referee Mark Curles can see that Wilson is the starter, barring injury or suspension.

Wilson shares some of Mallett’s strengths. He is a student of the game and while his arm, like that of almost every other quarterback in the world, is not as strong as Mallett’s, it is very good. Anyone who doubts that need only look at some of the throws he made at Auburn last year. A few of them were jaw-dropping lasers.

Wilson also seems to be a natural leader that his peers respect. He was named a team captain earlier this week despite playing sparingly thus far due to an illness his freshman year, and the presence of Mallett thereafter.

Wilson’s skill set is a bit different than Mallett’s. Although Mallett was more mobile within the pocket than many realize, he was remarkably slow outside of it. Wilson is much more mobile.

Let me be clear, though–Wilson is no Cam Newton. In fact, they are different in many (180,000?) ways. But, Wilson, like Newton, has the ability to scramble for key yardage and also throw accurately on the run. Those skills should serve him well early in the season when Arkansas will be breaking in 3 new starters on the offensive line.

Tyler’s primary “weakness” is a relative lack of experience at this level. Yes, he lit up the eventual National Champion for 4 touchdowns and 332 passing yards on a moment’s notice in a very hostile environment and followed that performance up with a workmanlike win over that school from North Mississippi. But, he also struggled late on The Plains after Auburn adjusted. And, for his career Tyler has only 109 pass attempts with 7 TDs and 7 interceptions.

It’s another number–4–that makes me believe Wilson, a redshirt junior, will be just fine. He has 4 sets of Bobby Petrino-led spring practices under his belt. Wilson also received the bulk of the workload during 2 of those sets of practices (the most recent and last year when an injured Mallett was on the mend. With the help of Petrino, who for good reason is considered to be one of the best quarterback developers in the nation, Wilson should be very good this season.

Ironically, though, Wilson’s 2011 season, for better or worse, will be judged largely based upon the same criteria that Mallett’s 2010 season was gauged. In many people’s eyes, for much of the season, Wilson will be what his performance against Alabama says he is.

AT: If we get a healthy Greg Childs back next fall, how do you think Petrino will manage a receiving corps that is almost overly-stocked with talent (Childs, Adams, Wright, Hamilton, Gragg, etc.)? In particular, how do you think he’ll use Childs and Hamilton to complement one another? After Childs went down with his season-ending patellar tendon injury, Petrino put Cobi Hamilton in as the starting WR in the South Carolina game to do exactly what Childs did, and Hamilton played the role well. I’m curious as to how it will work with both WRs healthy next fall. (A question you don’t have to worry as much about with respect to Adams, for instance, since he is more of a catch-and-run receiver on shorter routes instead of the prototypical depth threat.)

AB: I think Hamilton will be used early and often. I’m not ready to say we have a Wally Pipp situation in the works, because I LOVE Greg Childs,have loved him since his freshman year, and prior to his injury I thought he had emerged as lethal threat worthy of All SEC, and thus All-American consideration. Having said that, Hamilton may have even more talent and he has shown signs on and off the field of positioning himself to put it all together (just ask the best player in this year’s draft, Patrick Peterson).

Rumblings from The Hill indicate Hamilton has been a gym/weight room rat this summer and he could be primed for a breakout. That has to be scary for opposing defenses considering Hamilton arguably possesses the best blend of size, speed and hands of any of the receivers in a group that most pundits consider  one of the best in the nation.

Childs almost undoubtedly will have some rust to shake off early in the season and I expect Hamilton to pick up the slack. I wouldn’t be suprised at all to see Arkansas have 4 receivers with over 700 yards receiving in 2011. That would be yet another testament to their collective skill and Petrino’s “Feed the Studs” system.

AT: Do you have any thoughts on the Arkansas defense, which appeared to be improved over the 2009 campaign? It’s play in some games was quite solid (the South Carolina game comes to mind), while it could be downright porous in others (Auburn, Ole Miss). What does Willy Robinson need to do to take the next step forward on the defensive side?

AB: I expect the Hogs to have a Top 20 defense nationally for a few reasons. First, they return a ton of talent. I have always been of the belief that in order to win the SEC, you typically have to have 4-5 ALL SEC caliber players on the defensive side of the ball in order to have a legit shot at the conference title. Arkansas finally has that kind of talent on defense and more importantly, it may have its best defensive line in the last 20 years.

Throw in the addition of JUCO defensive lineman Robert Thomas, who reporters, coaches and players have all been collectively drooling over as a potential, long-awaited, game-changing interior defensive lineman and there is reason to believe the UA defense will not go from pretty solid to borderline elite.

Now, I have admittedly gushed over highly-touted JUCO transfers in this space before,and lived to regret it. With that in mind, let me throw out another somewhat “under the radar” name to look out for–Tramain Thomas.

Yes, I know he was named 2nd-Team All SEC following last season. But when thinking of Razorback defensive playmakers, his name isn’t one of the first few that is typically mentioned by UA fans.

Jake Bequette, Jerry Franklin, Jerico Nelson and even Tank Wright receive more attention, and are certainly deserving of accolades, but Thomas, #5, is coming into his own and with his emerging ball skills may be so good at safety this year that his play will prompt the Arkansas Democrat Gazette sports editor to call for him to be moved to safety (someone please get that reference. PLEASE!)

AT: How much of a team psychological factor do you think it was to have a kicker like Zack Hocker instead of the mistake-prone Alex Tejada? And how do you see Hocker’s continuing development as a factor in the next few seasons (since he’s only a sophomore in 2011)? This may seem like a bit of an odd question, but I don’t think the negative impact of Tejada’s “head case” tendencies in pressure situations over the past few years can be over-estimated. Not only did he often miss key FGs, he also caused the head coach (whether Nutt or Petrino) to choose not to attempt FGs when they could have represented important points-on-the-board. Hocker wasn’t perfect this past season, but he showed three things that are “musts” for place kickers: a big leg (he made at 50+ yarder at one point), an accurate leg (which can be refined with practice), and a level head (which is more of a factor for kickers than any other position player). I really wonder if Hocker’s emergence represents the kind of key puzzle piece the Hogs need in place if they are going to win the SEC Championship Game in the next few years, even if it is a puzzle piece often overlooked by fans.

AB: I think you make great points about Hocker and the kicking game as a whole. His value can’t be overstated. In a cutthroat conference like the SEC, the kicking game is often the difference between being really good and hoisting the trophy. The one concern I have is that just about any kicker can “lose it” at any time. That’s why I think the first few games are very important for Hocker. He and the Hogs can’t afford a sophomore slump, particularly considering his dazzling freshman season effectively ran off most viable options for the job in the event something happens to Hocker.

In addition to Hocker, the punter, Dylan Breeding became a weapon last season. If Dennis Johnson returns to form on kickoff returns (after missing most of last season with a ruptured spleen) and Arkansas’ improved overall athleticism and the return of the invaluable Seth Armbrust lead to better kickoff coverage, Arkansas might be very good in all 4 facets of the game (offense, defeense, special teams and coaching) for the first time since joining the SEC.

AT: Where do you see the Hogs finishing up in 2011? From the East, we get Vandy again (which is good), and Tennessee replaces Georgia (which, at least next year, probably means an easier game). I think Alabama and Auburn are going to be hard to predict, given the players they are losing (but they coaches they are retaining!). LSU is always hard to gauge, while Dan Mullen looks to have Miss State as a stronger team than they usually are for as long as he cares to stay around Starkville. Houston Nutt is getting exposed in Ole Miss, which can’t compensate for coaching mediocrity the way Arkansas sometimes can, and I don’t think the Rebels will be much of a factor in the West. I’m glad we get South Carolina in Fayetteville, since Garcia will be back as QB and that RB Lattimore scares me. Out of conference, I think Texas A&M will continue to improve. Looks to be a tough schedule. Care to make a prediction?

AB: I think Arkansas is as good as anyone in the SEC. I actually like their schedule more than most. Yes, Arkansas gets the 2 teams most expect them to battle for the SEC West title–Bama and LSU–on the road. But, those games bookend the conference slate. Arkansas has had all offseason to prepare for Bama and will have all Fall Camp and the first 3 weeks of the season to gear up for them. Meanwhile, most of Arkansas’ annual “swing” games are in Arkansas (USCE, MSU, AU) while road games in Oxford and Nashville should be comfortable wins–at least as compared to most road wins that are earned  survived in the SEC.

So, while I’m not predicting a Hog win in Tuscaloosa, I think Arkansas will find a way to split the Bama and LSU games, be a 10-win team, again, and with the right breaks (for once in my lifetime) will have a real chance to win it all.

Thanks for the questions, Andrew. I needed, but enjoyed, the kick start.