(This is the second in a series in our annual SEC Preview leading up to the beginning of Fall Camp on August 5th.)

Coaches often say that winning cures all problems.  While that is certainly true during the season, winning can create some problems, too.  Problems like unreasonable fan expectations, offseason media hype, and players who think they may be a little better than they truly are at this point in their careers.

Welcome to Gene Chizik’s world.

The second-year Auburn coach rose above his laughable record at Iowa State (mustering only 5 wins in two seasons for a team that went bowling the year after he left) to turn Auburn into a contender right away – at least early in the season.  He made great hires in Gus Malzahn and Ted Roof to run the offense and defense respectively.  And Auburn quickly emerged as a recruiting juggernaut after several down years under Tommy Tubberville.  Judging by his press conference at SEC Media Days, Coach Chizik may be preparing to set expectations to where they should be in 2010.  “This is a long-term plan.  This is a long-term vision,” said Chizik only seconds into his prepared remarks.

Now comes the hard part.  Last year most reasonable Auburn fans would have been happy to go bowling, even if it meant Shreveport.  Instead Auburn raced out of the gates to a stunning 5-0 start, leaving gaudy offensive numbers in their wake.  Then came a trip to Fayetteville where the Gus Bus got derailed with Auburn losing by 3 touchdowns.

Ultimately Auburn somehow made its way to Tampa for the Outback Bowl (despite having the same record as Arkansas, South Carolina, Tennessee, Kentucky, and Georgia – none of whom Auburn defeated except a narrow win over Tennessee (USC and Auburn did not play)), played recklessly in the second half, pulled out a miracle win in overtime, and signed a highly regarded recruiting class.

Jeff's Snarky Comment From the Casual Fans' Peanut Gallery: It's funny to me that Hog fans withhold hate for AU--probably so as to not burn a bridge with the second coming in coaches, Gus.

Okay, coach.  What have you done for me lately? “We feel extremely, extremely excited on the fact that we feel we have the football team based on last year going in the right direction.  That doesn’t mean we have arrived, and we know that,” said the head coach.

The 2010 edition of the Auburn Tigers/War Eagles/Plainsmen has potential.  The offense should be ready to click a little better this season after getting better acquainted with Gus Malzahn’s offense.  The laws of large numbers say that Auburn could not suffer as many injuries on the defense as they did last year, but they still need to retool their defensive line.  The schedule sets up nicely for Auburn with their toughest (on paper) games coming on The Plains other than the Iron Bowl.

So why am I not buying Auburn as a contender this year?  Let’s take a look.

Offense

The Tigers have a strong edge at the offensive line position.  Big Lee Ziemba (Rogers, AR) returns to anchor an experienced, athletic unit.  He is one of 7 offensive starters who come back this year, including do-it-all back Mario Fannin.  These two young men will certainly have a big impact on the Tigers’ season, but the most explosive player looks to be Darvin Adams.  The 6’ 3”, 192-pound junior dazzled last year, reeling in 60 grabs for 997 yards and 10 touchdowns.

The big question entering camp is simple:  Who will throw it to him?

The smart money is on Cam Newton, the dismissed thief from Florida who transferred to Auburn for his second chance.  Most reports seem to indicate the young man has taken his fresh start seriously, and that should excite Auburn fans.  One has to wonder, though, how much of the complex Auburn offense has he mastered?  Folks from Arkansas know just how dangerous the Malzahn offense can be if he has an effective trigger man.  Newton has the tools and talent, but does he have the experience?  Unless you are surrounded by exceptional talent everywhere , any SEC fan knows that it is all but impossible to win big with a brand new quarterback.

And let’s be clear:  Auburn aint Alabama.

Defense

Where to begin?  The Tiger defense once struck fear in the hearts of SEC offensive coordinators.  Last year’s version fell victim to sadistic injury problems, leaving them as thin as Kate Moss at linebacker.  Coming into fall camp, questions now abound regarding the secondary.  All but one projected starter is dealing with some form of injury, so expect to see some new talent fighting for spots back there.  “(We’ve) got to continue to build the depth of our defense,” said Capt. Obvious Chizik at SEC Media Days.

Josh Byrnes comes back as the heart of the Auburn defense.  He broke the century mark in tackles, and

Eat something!

the senior returns now with his eyes set on leading the Tigers back to prominence.   Byrnes will need a lot of help, especially with the departed Antonio Coleman leaving a huge void up front.

Linebacker/defense end hybrid Michael Goggans will be expected to step up his game significantly after losing his starting job at linebacker last fall.  Coaches believe Goggans will provide them with the flexibility they need to cover some of the inexperience in the front seven.

The defensive backs desperately need the big guys up front to provide them some help as this M*A*S*H unit sorts itself out.  There is clearly talent, but it is raw and oft-injured.  Neiko Thorpe looks to be the most healthy option in addition to having several snaps under his belt.  Thorpe has the last name and the size to be one of the SEC’s top defenders.  The one player even the most hardened of Crimson Tide hearts can support is senior Aairon Savage.  He has battled serious injury after serious injury and hopes now to be the difference maker he promised to be during his freshman campaign.

Special Teams

Wes Bynum is about as consistent as you can find.  The preseason 2^nd Team All-SEC selection could be a vital weapon for a team that expects to play a lot of close games.  Bynum missed just one kick all season in 2009.

The punter position appears to be open with senior Ryan Shoemaker the clubhouse leader.  In terms of returning kickoffs and punts, Auburn has several options including Fannin.  Demond Washington put up flashy numbers last year, and Onterrio McCalebb could contribute in addition to his running back duties.  All three of those guys will get a look at returning punts, as will Quindarius Carr.

The Schedule

Auburn has a chance to get off to another solid start in 2010.  The Tigers get a “rebuilding” Arkansas State team (Hey, Steve Roberts is a family friend.  I can’t help but be generous with the Indian Red Wolves) before an extremely dangerous trip to Starkville.  Three consecutive home games follow – including an interesting non-conference game with Clemson – before another dangerous roadie at Lexington.  Arkansas and LSU make trips to Auburn in back-to-back weeks after Kentucky. Auburn then hits the road again, this time to Mississippi.  They have a late-season layup against UT-Chattanooga before closing with their annual rivalry games against Georgia and at Alabama.

A cynic sees little reason to expect anything more than six wins here.  An optimist sees, realistically, eight wins and potentially nine.  So what will happen, you ask?

What Will Happen

Auburn will not start 5-0 like last season, but this team has the potential to grow.  The problem for Auburn, though, is that the second half of the schedule includes 5 bowl teams from last year including the national champs. I happen to think, though, that the team will come together enough to pull off some big wins in October and November.

Earlier this week I was convinced Auburn would struggle to win more than six games.  After a little more review and further examination of the folks they have returning, I think another 8-win season is possible.  But I do not believe it is likely.

Auburn Offense

Returning Starters:  7

Key Players:  Lee Ziemba, Darvin Adams, Mario Fannin

Needs to Emerge: Cam Newton

Auburn Defense

Returning Starters: 8

Key Players:  Josh Bynum,  Neiko Thorpe

Needs to Emerge: Michael Goggans

Key Games:  at Mississippi State, at Kentucky, v. Arkansas, v. LSU, at Mississippi

Schedule/Predicted Result:  (7-5, 3-5)

Sept. 4 Arkansas St – W
Sept. 9 at Miss State – L
Sept. 18 Clemson – W
Sept. 25 South Carolina – L
Oct. 2 ULM – W
Oct. 9 at Kentucky – L
Oct. 16 Arkansas – L
Oct. 23 LSU – W
Oct. 30 at Ole Miss – W
Nov. 6 Chattanooga – W
Nov. 13 Georgia – W
Nov. 20 OPEN DATE
Nov. 26 at Alabama – L

This video was so bad, I docked Auburn a predicted win this season.