Matt Fanelli

The Cougars come to town after earning their 2^nd consecutive regional bid.  Washington State and Arkansas met last year in the first round of the Norman (OK) Regional, a game the Razorbacks won en route to the College World Series.  The Hogs also beat the Cougars in a three game sweep to start last season.  Washington State enters play this weekend ranked 24^th in the nation according to Baseball America.  They finished third in the ultra-competitive Pac-10, well behind national seeds Arizona State and UCLA.

Matt Fanelli is the offensive leader of the ball club.  He posted a .316 batting average this season and scratched out 5 homers and 40 RBI.  Derek Jones is the only consistent power threat.  The .300 hitter leads WSU with 11 homers and is one of three players with 40 RBI this season.  They do not run much, but watch for the Cougars’ Garry Kuykendall if they do decide to run.  He leads the team with 12 swipes in 15 attempts.

What the Cougars lack in offense they make up for easily in pitching depth.  Chard Arnold is the ace of the staff, sporting a 5-3 record and 3.47 ERA.  He easily leads the club in inning pitched.  His 98 2/3 IP is 40% higher than any other player on the team.  James Wise and Paris Shewey both expect to see a lot of action this weekend.  If Washington State gets to the 9^th with the lead, Adam Conley will likely get the call.  He leads the team with 11 saves this season and a 3.13 ERA.

Fayetteville Regional Projection:  I expect Washington State to stick around all weekend.  Their pitching depth and experience from last season will prove valuable.  Wazzu should take care of business against Kansas State on Friday before being sent to the losers bracket by Drew Smyly and the Hogs on Saturday.  Their pitching depth will come in handy then, defeating Kansas State before finally succumbing to the Hogs on Sunday.

Catch Kyle Hunter on Friday afternoon.

The Kansas State Wildcats come into the Fayetteville Regional stumbling a bit.  They are 5-7 over their past 3 regular season series and the Big XII Tournament, winning only one series against Kansas.  During that stretch KSU lost 2 of 3 at home to Texas, 2 of three on the road at Texas A&M, and then 2 more during their conference tournament against Baylor and Oklahoma.  Much like Arkansas, KSU saw the quality of their competition increase significantly in the second half of the season.  The boys from Manhattan come into Fayetteville boasting a 36-20 (14-12 in Big XII play) overall record after starting the season 20-3.

Nick Martini, the Big XII co-player of the year, leads the Wildcats with a .416 batting average and 53 RBI and 19 stolen bases.  Adam Muenster also brings a hot bat to the Ozarks, second on the team with a .386 average and 25 steals.  A team built on speed and timely hitting, Kansas State has only 1 player with double-digit home runs, and that’s Carter Jurica who put 11 balls beyond the wall this year.  He also leads the team with 65 RBI.

Kyle Hunter leads the KSU staff with a 9-2 record and a 4.50 ERA.  He leads all starters with 51 strikeouts, three more than Evan Marshall’s 48 whiffs.  Marshall picked up 5 wins, mostly in relief duty.  Justin Lindsey and Ryan Daniel are also likely starters in Fayetteville over the weekend.

Fayetteville Regional Projection:  Kansas State lacks the offensive firepower to last too long in this tournament, but they will not go down without a fight.  They will find themselves in the losers bracket Saturday afternoon, but I expect them to rebound and dispose of Grambling.  Unfortunately they have to turn right around and play the Cougars again on Sunday.  That should do it for the Wildcats as they run out of pitching after a program-building run in Fayetteville.

Can they bring the band?

This is a hot team at the right time.  The overall problem for Grambling is that they lack the horses and winning tradition needed to advance in a tournament like this.  The Tigers come into the Fayetteville Regional 22-29 on the season, that after losing their first 9 games of the 2010 campaign.  GSU picked up its first four wins after sweeping doubleheaders from Jarvis Christian College (Texas) and Alabama A&M.  After those wins the Tigers lost 11 of 12 games and never really regained their footing until the SWAC Tournament.  Grambling lost 3 of its last five regular season games before rolling through Shreveport unbeaten, scoring 47 runs in 4 games.

Grambling is led at the plate by sophomore Chris Wolfe with a  .358 average and 27 steals on the season.  Wolfe is one of three Tigers to swipe 20 or more this season.  Another of their speedesters is Jeremy Shelby, a senior outfielder with a .354 average and 20 bags on the season.  Seniors Steve Kletke and Mychal Roby banged out matching lines of 10 homers and 41 RBI each, leading the team in both categories.

Junior lefty Odingo Davila led the Tigers with 7 wins on the season but sported a lofty 6.00 ERA.  Fellow junior southpaw Adrian Turner comes into the regional with 5 wins and an ERA of 5.90.  He struck out 62 batters over 90 innings this season.  Grambling has no true closer and appears to pitch as a whole staff.  There are 8 different arms with more than 20 IP this season.

Fayetteville Regional Prediction:  These fans and players will never forget this experience, although it will be brief.  Grambling will drop their only 2 games and head back to Louisiana proud of their SWAC Tournament championship.  It’s “oh-and-2 and a barbecue” for Grambling, but what a fine barbecue it will be.

It looks like the Hogs got a very favorable draw.  While Grambling is hot right now, they simply do not have the guns to keep up with Arkansas – even if the Hogs are playing a bit hurt.  Washington State comes from the powerful Pac-10, which sent 8 teams to the tournament this season.  Arkansas knocked off the Cougars in last year’s opener at the Norman Regional.  Kansas State is the wildcard, as they have proven to be hot and cold throughout the season.

It all comes down to health for Arkansas right now.  Zack Cox is still far from 100% entering the tournament, and my money is on him not playing this Friday against Grambling.  Brett Eibner has a hairline fracture in his left hand, but he can still play.  But it will be quite painful.  There is better news on the injury front with Andy Wilkins, who Coach Dave Van Horn deemed fit to play.  And Drew Smyly looked great in relief against Florida at the SEC Tournament.  Presumably he will be ready to go on Friday or Saturday.

I project Arkansas to survive at home and play in Tempe during the Super Regionals.  My first reaction is that the Hogs’ run ends there, but I’ll make a more formal prediction later in the week.  Here is my very early prediction for the 8 teams headed to Omaha.  I’ll lock down my final picks by Friday.

• Arizona St.
• Texas
• Florida
• Virginia Tech
• Oklahoma
• LSU
• Louisville
• Alabama

Arkansas has been paired with the Arizona State region (for the super regional), meaning the Razorbacks were the last host school on the board.

Here is an updated link to Rivals with a great layout of each regional and its corresponding regional for the Supers.

11:30a – The selection show is underway.

11:32a – As expected, Arkansas is NOT a national seed thanks to the late-season slide.

1) Arizona State, 2) Texas, 3) Florida, 4) Coastal Carolina, 5) Virginia, 6) UCLA, 7) Louisville, 8 ) Georgia Tech

Despite the strength in the conference, only 1 school (Florida) gains a national seed.

11:34a – Arizona State regional includes San Diego, Hawaii, Wisc-Milwaukee

11:35a – Texas regional includes Louisiana-Lafayette, Rider, and Rice

11:36a – Florida will host Bethune Cookman, Florida Atlantic and…. Oregon State — big trip for the Beavers

11:38a – Coastal Carolina with a favorable draw.  They host NC State, Stony Brook, and College of Charleston

11:39a – Virginia, on the other hand, gets a tough draw: Ole Miss, Virginia Commonwealth, and red hot St. John’s

11:40a – UCLA gets the toughest #2 seed in LSU.  They also host UC-Irvine and Kent State

11:41a – Louisville hosts Vanderbilt, St. Louis, and Illinois State

11:41a – Georgia Tech hosts Alabama, Mercer and Elon

11:43a – Miami gets the red hot Texas A&M Aggies along with Dartmouth and Florida International (and Garret Wittels)

11:44a – Fullerton hosts Minnesota, Stanford and New Mexico (sneaky tough region)

11:45a – UConn is hosting as a #2 seed.  Florida State is the No. 1 there, along with Oregon and Central Connecticut State

11:45a – TCU hosts Arizona, Lamar, and Baylor

11:46a – Auburn has Clemson (always tough) Southern Miss, and Jacksonville State

11:46a – South Carolina will host Bucknell, Virginia Tech and The Citadel

11:48a – Arkansas hosts Grambling (a sub-500 team) along with Washington State (who UA beat last year in Norman) and Kansas State

11:49a – Oklahoma hosts California, North Carolina, and Oral Roberts

We are 2 hours away from the NCAA Selection Show for The Road to Omaha.  I can say this honestly:  I believe I get more excited for this than the basketball draw.  The college baseball post-season is just fantastic.  We already know that Arkansas will host one of the regionals.  It is almost certain, though, that the Hogs will hit the road for the super regionals should they advance.  Arkansas is paired up with Virginia, the likely #2 overall seed.

While those of us stuck at work toil away as most of you prepare to barbecue, here are a few projections.

ESPN.com

Rivals.com

Ping Baseball

Baseball America

SE Baseball.com

And, of course, the most important:

1 – Arkansas

2 – Virginia Tech

3 – Kansas State

4 – Grambling

He’s been on the job for one year, and the NCAA has already sniffed out a potential recruiting violation for John Calipari’s Kentucky Wildcats.  As you can imagine, this story follows a similar pattern: academic questions, a new apartment for mom and son, high school coach demanding payments….allegedly of course.

I suppose this has nothing to do with Cal’s name coming up with potential NBA jobs, huh?