Ryan’s Hope–An Essay Exam on Ryan Mallett’s Return to the UA.
Posted by Adam Butler on January 11, 2010
2-0 vs. UGA & Bama=Hog Heaven
In the afterglow of Arkansas quarterback Ryan Mallett’s announcement last Friday that he will return to the University of Arkansas next season, Bloghawgs.com reader, former Baldwin Bear and longtime AB pal, Andrew Thompson, gave me a little Ryan Mallett-related homework assignment.
Unlike the homework assignments from my frequent (but finally fruitful) College Algebra assignments, I am more than happy to tackle this one. Plus, it’s made up of 3 essay questions, with no right answer, so it seems pretty fail safe. Here goes:
1. Do you think Mallett will be touted as a strong Heisman contender, and if so, what do you think his chances are?
I definitely think Mallett will be touted as a Heisman contender early, and often, next year. In fact, for a number of reasons, I’m confident he will be in the Top 5 of most pigskin pundits’ Heisman lists before the season starts. First and foremost, if he stays healthy and keeps his nose clean, there’s little doubt Mallett, one of 9 returning starters on an offense that was in the Top 15 in production nationally in 2009, will put up Heisman-worthy numbers.
Whether he is a legit contender in the end, though, will depend upon how he and the Hogs perform in big games. While avid Razorback fans and astute college football followers are already aware of Mallett, he has yet to reach national, household-name status, primarily because of his stop and start career (he played as a backup at Michigan as a freshman in 2007 before transferring home to Arkansas, redshirting in ’08 and starring in ’09 at the UA helm) and his lack, to date, of a signature win.
That could all change on September 25, 2010. IF (and it’s a big, but quite possible IF) Arkansas beats Georgia in Athens on September 18th, defending BCS Champion Alabama will be rolling into Fayetteville, undoubtedly with the ESPN Gameday crew in tow, for a battle of unbeaten, Top 10 teams, with the winner likely becoming the prohibitive favorite to win the SEC West.
It’s at that point that Mallett will have a real opportunity to separate himself from the Heisman pack, which, barring injury, will include the classy, workmanlike, and wholly deserving 2009 Heisman winner, Mark Ingram.
Under that scenario, Mallett will have led (yeah, I just went future perfect tense….what of it?) his squad to a road win at Georgia, a marquee opponent and one of his team’s biggest obstacles of the year in prime television viewing time.
Such a win on the heels of the arrival of evil defensive mastermind Nick Saban and his Crimson band of Emo-hairdoed, Houndstooth headgear clad, Bear Bryant worshipping Tide fans would send ESP*I*N into a nuclear meltdown and Razorback Nation into a frenzy that it hasn’t approached since Corliss was schooling all comers and causing unknowing Hog fans to become human “Psi” signs as he, and they paid homage to his Omega Psi Phi (ie Q-dog) fraternity on the way to One Shining Moment just off Tobacco Road.
But what will Mallett do with the opportunity if it presents itself? A common misconception regarding Mallett is that he fell completely flat in big games this season.
A closer look reveals that Mallett came out too amped up early in some big games (Bama, Florida, Mississippi, LSU) and as result, his team, and his numbers suffered. What most forget, though, is that despite his early struggles, in a few of those games (Florida and LSU, particularly) Mallett regained his composure, and his mechanics well enough to orchestrate would-be game-winning drives in the 2 most hostile environments in the SEC.
Those efforts reflected Mallett’s competitive nature, and suggested that, if he can keep from digging too big off a hole early in big games in ’10, he has the ability to make dazzling plays to win them.
The Bama game will be his first opportunity to establish himself as the Heisman front runner, and to answer the hushed, but pervasive theory that he wilts in big games.
If he drops 300+ with 3TDs and the Hogs beat the Tide, he’ll go from Heisman contender to Heisman frontrunner quicker than the Mississippi Coach can say “underachieve”.
2) If the Hogs can address their defensive weakness and Mallett’s footwork (which I think is the chief reason for his inconsistencies), what do you think are their chances for an SEC Championship?
First, good observation regarding Mallett’s footwork. I think you are spot on regarding his inconsistency. It will be one of the main things he focuses on in the offseason, and his efforts could be bolstered by help from some massive, but agile offensive lineman–Anthony Oden (brother of 2007 NBA Draft #1 overall pick Greg Oden) and Alvin Bailey.
The Arkansas offensive line was much improved in terms of pass blocking in ’09, but it still featured the human “Look Out!!” block at tackle, Ray Dominguez. Oden should help on the edge and allow Dominguez to slide inside and either be productive, or lose snaps to Bailey.
That kind of talent infusion, and this year’s experience, will help Mallett’s mechanics more than anything else. The fact is that even the greatest quarterbacks, as we saw yesterday with Tom Brady,–are inconsistent when they are having to worry about their face masks being rammed into their skull or their ACLs being snapped in two like a Slim Jim.
Now, the Arkansas defense woes are a much tougher nut to crack. The good news is they will have quite a few returning starters. After finishing last in the SEC in defense the last two seasons, the bad news is also that the will have quite a few returning starters.
The chief concern has to be the secondary, and one would guess it will be improved. High School All American cornerback Darius Winston didn’t make an impact in his freshman season of ’09, but he had the coaches raving during bowl workouts, and if the proverbial light can come on for him, it could have a trickle-down effect for the entire unit. Also, one of Arkansas’ best cover corners, Isaac Madison, who missed all of ’09 with a torn ACL, should be back, and, if full speed, will provide immediate help.
If either of them develops into a lockdown cornerback, it will allow the UA defense to be creative with blitzes, coverages and run support, and will provide an element that is, in my opinion, second to only a dominant front four on the defensive line in terms of key ingredients for a successful defense.
Arkansas may also land JUCO All-American and JayHawk Conference Defensive Player of the Year, defensive end Scott Smith, who signed with Texas Tech but may be looking to get out of his commitment in the wake of Equipment Shed Gate Smith would mitigate the loss of Malcolm Sheppard and Adrian Davis off of the defensive line, to an extent.
But let’s not get too greedy. The Arkansas defense doesn’t have to be dominant next season for the Razorbacks to make a run at the SEC Championship and the nearly automatic BCS Championship game berth that goes with it. It merely has to be average.
If it is, the Hogs’ SEC chances will boil down to the Georgia and Bama games that I already mentioned. If the Hogs can split those two, and particularly if they can beat Bama, I think they have a real shot at making it to Atlanta. I’m not so sure Bama will have less than 2 conference losses next season.
It’s too early to tell, but they will have a bull’s eye on their chest, and will be without defensive stalwarts Terrence Cody, Javier Arenas and (probably) Rolando McCLain. Also, a schedule that features road games at Arkansas, LSU, Tennessee and South Carolina will mean the days of Bama QB Greg Mcelroy getting by on his feminine wiles (yup, I said it…he’s kind of a priss pot) and his best, very poor man’s Jay Barker impersonation, won’t cut it. He and Julio (pronounced Jew Lee O if you are the indescribably bad Reynolds Razorback Stadium Announcer, John George) Jones are going to have to live up to the hype.
I would never bet too much money on the Hogs escaping back-to-back tilts with Georgia and Alabama with anything other than a couple of Ls around their necks, but if they split or, I dare to even think about it, sweep, then look out.
3. Assuming that Alabama would be the biggest obstacle in winning the SEC West, what do you see as the pros and cons of how we will match up with them next fall?
Since I am a glass half empty guy, let’s go cons first: The Tide is much more talented than Arkansas from 1-85. They are the darlings of the league, and now that College Football Baby Jesus, Tim Tebow is FINALLY, FINALLY, FINALLY!!!! gone, they will return to their perch as league darlings that get every call and yet explain away every on-field loss they’ve ever had (for example, we’re 5-7 against them in the last dozen years and they have excuses for all 5 losses, including the 42-6 1998 beatdown in which Shaun Alexander dove for the sidelines late in the game as if he was going to explode on contact from a Hog defender.)
And, despite the loss of several key players, they are still going to have a salty defensive, and the prototypical bruising Bama running attack, as well as a head coach that may murder them on the field if they miss assignments. Finally, the biggest con of all–prior to the Liberty Bowl, I had made the same number of clutch kicks as UA PK Alex Tejada.
Pros: With one of the best players in the country under center, and another year in Bobby Petrino’s system under its belt, the Arkansas offense should be ready for prime time, even against the vaunted Crimson Tide defense. The atmosphere should be record-setting attendance-like electric. And, the Arkansas defensive should have some quiet confidence knowing that, but for one Bo Jackson on the original Tecmo Bowlesque run by Trent Richardson and some sorry field position that was caused largely by the Hogs’ offensive struggles, the Razorbacks’ defense actually turned in a decent effort this year in Tuscaloosa.
So, there you have it. My homework is complete. I think the Hogs will be a Top 15 team and will have a puncher’s chance at being even better going to Atlanta for the SECCG. But we are the Chicago Cubs of college football, so, a year from now, we’ll probably be playing yet another rousing game of “Wait ‘Til Next Year”. Can I go play Wii now?
9 Responses to “Ryan’s Hope–An Essay Exam on Ryan Mallett’s Return to the UA.”
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General said
Nice use of the Future Perfect. The whole essay is great. The future perfect (and even knowing what the future perfect is) iced the cake.
Blake said
Ryans Hope, old school Soaps. Do you remember Grandpa watching that ?
Adam Butler said
Jeff–don’t ask me to go future perfect en espanol. Can’t do it.
Blake–I thought it was “As the World Turns” that grandpa watched, but I am not sure. For whatever reason, I remember it was a CBS soap he watched, and Ryan’s Hope was ABC. I will now go light myself on fire for knowing that. That’s the reason I am part of a Little Rock Live Trivia juggernaut….I can remember stuff like that.
And guys, thanks for the comments. They made the inordinate amount of time I spent on that worth, it, because those were my two favorite parts. We should have our Preseason Predictions review out, soon. Thanks for reading.
JUJU said
Can we get “Big Knucklehead” part of this future tense thing when referring to RM? I think it has legs…quite catchy….especially when referring to himself by the same name in an interview.
Adam Butler said
Lemme give it a shot.
Ryan “Big Knucklehead” Mallett will have had many interviews in which he looks as if his pants are 6 sizes too big and sounds as if he has a full bag of marbles in his mouth, by the time he completes his career at Arkansas.
JUJU said
not bad…maybe “Big Knuck” or “Knuck Knuck” would be potential as well. ‘Preciate ya and I’ll HUAL
Andrew Thompson said
Adam –
This is a little belated, but thanks for writing what can only be described as a tour-de-force commentary on Mallett & the Hogs. That was one of the most enjoyable reading experiences I’ve had in a long time, and I practically read for a living. I imagine that, by early December, we will have been able to look back on your analysis as an accurate prediction of what the Hogs needed for a championship-caliber season.
The only proper homage I know to offer for such an effort on your part – besides my labored attempt to use the future perfect at the end of the last paragraph – is to give you a nod on my own site:
http://www.genxrising.com/2010/01/calling-all-hogs-fans.html
Thanks again,
AT
Andrew Thompson said
Just re-read the official Adam Butler commentary on the 2010 Razorbacks season, posted last January. It was interesting to review, in light of all that ended up happening this season. A few observations:
1) Mallett was in fact an early-season Heisman contender, and he did go into the Alabama game with a chance to shine (although ESPN took its Gameday crew up to Boise; don’t get me started on that). Even more, the Hogs did manage to beat Georgia between the hedges to carry an undefeated record into the matchup against the Crimson Tide. Got to hand it to my old friend for how uncannily accurate his predictions were up to that point, and he wisely showed some skepticism that the Hogs would beat both Georgia and Alabama. It was the loss to Alabama and Mallett’s inability to do much of anything in the second half against the Tide that caused him to start losing attention as a potential Heisman winner.
2) Once again, Butler was spot-on in suggesting that Alabama was going to lose a few games this season. They were good, but not national championship good. And while they beat the Hogs early, a look back on the season for both teams as a whole shows how much the Hogs really should have won that game in Fayetteville. It was Ingram’s first game back for Bama, and he ran like a house on fire. And it was a few games before the Razorbacks sorted out their own running game and handed the reins to Knile Davis. If the Hogs could have slowed Ingram a bit, and if they could have controlled the ball better in the fourth quarter, I think they would have won that game by 7. (Part of that would have included Mallett not freaking out and trying to do too much, resulting in the INTs, of course.)
3) What nobody really saw coming – either in the Heisman race or in the SEC West race – was the 2010 Auburn Tigers. Whether or not Cam Newton deserves to be playing, his play is certainly deserving of the Heisman trophy he won a few weeks ago. It’s hard to say what the Arkansas-Auburn game would have been like if the refs hadn’t blatantly made those home cookin’ calls that led to Auburn scores, if Mallett hadn’t gotten injured, and if Davis had established himself as our featured RB. But that’s all coulda, woulda, shoulda. We lost that game and probably deserved to. I’m glad Newton won the Heisman and, all things considered, I’m tickled that Arkansas finished 2nd in the SEC West. Consider this: We beat GA, SC, and Miss State on the road; We beat Texas A&M for the second straight year; We beat LSU in the Battle of the Boot; and we’re headed to the freakin’ Sugar Bowl. That is a successful football season for the Hogs, by any measure.
4) I’m working under the assumption that Mallett is going to enter the draft, which means our QB next year will most likely be Tyler Wilson. Mallett’s loss is a real loss, but Wilson has got some things to bring to the table that Mallett frankly doesn’t. I think the biggest two are: a) Mobility; and b) The ability to throw a pass of less than 20 yards without trying to bore a hole through his receivers’ chests. With Mallett, we’ll also lose a few key players on the offensive side, like OT DeMarcus Love and TE D.J. Williams. But we’re returning a whole stable of great players like our WR corps, RB Knile Davis, and several O-linemen. I thought the defensive unit under Willy Robinson was much improved this year, even if its play could be uneven at times. So if Adam is up for it, I’d challenge him to give us a commentary on the 2011 Hogs season sometime between the Sugar Bowl and spring practices. If questions are needed, here’s five:
A) Assuming Mallett goes to the NFL, do you see Tyler Wilson as the odds-on favorite to be starting QB in 2011? And what do you think his strengths and weaknesses are in comparison to Mallett in running Bobby Petrino’s offense?
B) If we get a healthy Greg Childs back next fall, how do you think Petrino will manage a receiving corps that is almost overly-stocked with talent (Childs, Adams, Wright, Hamilton, Gragg, etc.)? In particular, how do you think he’ll use Childs and Hamilton to complement one another? After Childs went down with his season-ending patellar tendon injury, Petrino put Cobi Hamilton in as the starting WR in the South Carolina game to do exactly what Childs did, and Hamilton played the role well. I’m curious as to how it will work with both WRs healthy next fall. (A question you don’t have to worry as much about with respect to Adams, for instance, since he is more of a catch-and-run receiver on shorter routes instead of the prototypical deal threat.)
C) Do you have any thoughts on the Arkansas defense, which appeared to be improved over the 2009 campaign? It’s play in some games was quite solid (the South Carolina game comes to mind), while it could be downright porous in others (Auburn, Ole Miss). What does Willy Robinson need to do to take the next step forward on the defensive side?
D) How much of a team psychological factor do you think it was to have a kicker like Zack Hocker instead of the mistake-prone Alex Tejada? And how do you see Hocker’s continuing development as a factor in the next few seasons (since he’s only a sophomore in 2011)? This may seem like a bit of an odd question, but I don’t think the negative impact of Tejada’s “head case” tendencies in pressure situations over the past few years can be over-estimated. Not only did he often miss key FGs, he also caused the head coach (whether Nutt or Petrino) to choose not to attempt FGs when they could have represented important points-on-the-board. Hocker wasn’t perfect this past season, but he showed three things that are “musts” for place kickers: a big leg (he made at 50+ yarder at one point), an accurate leg (which can be refined with practice), and a level head (which is more of a factor for kickers than any other position player). I really wonder if Hocker’s emergence represents the kind of key puzzle piece the Hogs need in place if they are going to win the SEC Championship Game in the next few years, even if it is a puzzle piece often overlooked by fans.
E) Where do you see the Hogs finishing up in 2011? From the East, we get Vandy again (which is good), and Tennessee replaces Georgia (which, at least next year, probably means an easier game). I think Alabama and Auburn are going to be hard to predict, given the players they are losing (but they coaches they are retaining!). LSU is always hard to gauge, while Dan Mullen looks to have Miss State as a stronger team than they usually are for as long as he cares to stay around Starkville. Houston Nutt is getting exposed in Ole Miss, which can’t compensate for coaching mediocrity they way Arkansas sometimes can, and I don’t think the Rebels will be much of a factor in the West. I’m glad we get South Carolina in Fayetteville, since Garcia will be back as QB and that RB Lattimore scares me. Out of conference, I think Texas A&M will continue to improve. Looks to be a tough schedule. Care to make a prediction?
Andrew Thompson said
One correction: I meant to refer to Joe Adams as a catch-and-run receiver rather than the prototypical deep threat, the way Greg Childs and Cobi Hamilton are. Obviously, a prototypical “deal threat” makes no sense whatsoever.
I didn’t spend much time on Jarius Wright, but I think he might be the most intriguing of the whole bunch. He’s short, but he’s often downfield managing to snare deep passes. He can run well, even if he doesn’t have all the moves Adams does. And even though he might get overshadowed by those other guys at times, he still manages to pile up an awful lot of receiving yards. That was especially the case after Childs went down this past fall. Wright only had a couple of 100-yard receiving games, but he still managed to end up as the leading receiver on the team, ahead of Adams, Hamilton, Williams, et al.