2-0 vs. UGA & Bama=Hog Heaven

In the afterglow of Arkansas quarterback Ryan Mallett’s announcement last Friday that he will return to the University of Arkansas next season, Bloghawgs.com reader, former Baldwin Bear and longtime AB pal, Andrew Thompson, gave me a little Ryan Mallett-related homework assignment.  

Unlike the homework assignments from my frequent (but finally fruitful) College Algebra assignments, I am more than happy to tackle this one.  Plus, it’s made up of 3 essay questions, with no right answer, so it seems pretty fail safe.  Here goes: 

1. Do you think Mallett will be touted as a strong Heisman contender, and if so, what do you think his chances are? 

I definitely think Mallett will be touted as a Heisman contender early, and often, next year.  In fact, for a number of reasons, I’m confident he will be in the Top 5 of most pigskin pundits’ Heisman lists before the season starts.  First and foremost, if he stays healthy and keeps his nose clean, there’s little doubt Mallett, one of 9 returning starters on an offense that was in the Top 15 in production nationally in 2009, will put up Heisman-worthy numbers. 

Whether he is a legit contender in the end, though, will depend upon how he and the Hogs perform in big games.  While avid Razorback fans and astute college football followers are already aware of Mallett, he has yet to reach national, household-name status, primarily because of his stop and start career (he played as a backup at Michigan as a freshman in 2007 before transferring home to Arkansas, redshirting in ’08 and starring in ’09 at the UA helm) and his lack, to date, of a signature win. 

That could all change on September 25, 2010.  IF (and it’s a big, but quite possible IF) Arkansas beats Georgia in Athens on September 18th, defending BCS Champion Alabama will be rolling into Fayetteville, undoubtedly with the ESPN Gameday crew in tow, for a battle of unbeaten, Top 10 teams, with the winner likely becoming the prohibitive favorite to win the SEC West. 

It’s at that point that Mallett will have a real opportunity to separate himself from the Heisman pack, which, barring injury, will include the classy, workmanlike, and wholly deserving 2009 Heisman winner, Mark Ingram.  

Under that scenario, Mallett will have led (yeah, I just went future perfect tense….what of it?) his squad to a road win at Georgia, a marquee opponent and one of his team’s biggest obstacles of the year  in prime television viewing time. 

Such a win on the heels of the arrival of evil defensive mastermind Nick Saban and his Crimson band of Emo-hairdoed, Houndstooth headgear clad, Bear Bryant worshipping Tide fans would send ESP*I*N into a nuclear meltdown and Razorback Nation into a frenzy that it hasn’t approached since Corliss was schooling all comers and causing unknowing Hog fans to become human “Psi” signs as he, and they paid homage to his Omega Psi Phi (ie Q-dog) fraternity on the way to One Shining Moment just off Tobacco Road. 

But what will Mallett do with the opportunity if it presents itself? A common misconception regarding Mallett is that he fell completely flat in big games this season.  

A closer look reveals that  Mallett came out too amped up early in some big games (Bama, Florida, Mississippi, LSU) and as result, his team, and his numbers suffered.   What most forget, though, is that despite his early struggles, in a few of those games (Florida and LSU, particularly) Mallett regained his composure, and his mechanics well enough to orchestrate would-be game-winning drives in the 2 most hostile environments in the SEC. 

Those efforts reflected Mallett’s competitive nature, and suggested that, if he can keep from digging too big off a hole early in big games in ’10, he has the ability to make dazzling plays to win them.  

The Bama game will be his first opportunity to establish himself as the Heisman front runner, and to answer the hushed, but pervasive theory that he wilts in big games. 

If he drops 300+ with 3TDs and the Hogs beat the Tide, he’ll go from Heisman contender to Heisman frontrunner quicker than the Mississippi Coach can say “underachieve”. 

2) If the Hogs can address their defensive weakness and Mallett’s footwork (which I think is the chief reason for his inconsistencies), what do you think are their chances for an SEC Championship? 

First, good observation regarding Mallett’s footwork.  I think you are spot on regarding his inconsistency.  It will be one of the main things he focuses on in the offseason, and his efforts could be bolstered by help from some massive, but agile offensive lineman–Anthony Oden (brother of 2007 NBA Draft #1 overall pick Greg Oden) and Alvin Bailey.  

The Arkansas offensive line was much improved in terms of pass blocking in ’09, but it still featured the human “Look Out!!” block at tackle, Ray Dominguez.  Oden should help on the edge and allow Dominguez to slide inside and either be productive, or lose snaps to Bailey. 

That kind of talent infusion, and this year’s experience, will help Mallett’s mechanics more than anything else.  The fact is that even the greatest quarterbacks, as we saw yesterday with Tom Brady,–are inconsistent when they are having to worry about their face masks being rammed into their skull or their ACLs being snapped in two like a Slim Jim. 

Now, the Arkansas defense woes are a much tougher nut to crack.  The good news is they will have quite a few returning starters.  After finishing last in the SEC in defense the last two seasons, the bad news is also that the will have quite a few returning starters. 

The chief concern has to be the secondary, and one would guess it will be improved.  High School All American cornerback Darius Winston didn’t make an impact in his freshman season of ’09, but he had the coaches raving during bowl workouts, and if the proverbial light can come on for him, it could have a trickle-down effect for the entire unit. Also, one of Arkansas’ best cover corners, Isaac Madison, who missed all of ’09 with a torn ACL, should be back, and, if full speed, will provide immediate help. 

 If either of them develops into a lockdown cornerback, it will allow the UA defense to be creative with blitzes, coverages and run support, and will provide an element that is, in my opinion, second to only a dominant front four on the defensive line in terms of key ingredients for a successful defense.  

Arkansas may also land JUCO All-American and JayHawk Conference Defensive Player of the Year, defensive end Scott Smith, who signed with Texas Tech but may be looking to get out of his commitment in the wake of Equipment Shed Gate Smith would mitigate the loss of Malcolm Sheppard and Adrian Davis off of the defensive line, to an extent. 

But let’s not get too greedy.  The Arkansas defense doesn’t have to be dominant next season for the Razorbacks to make a run at the SEC Championship and the nearly automatic BCS Championship game berth that goes with it.  It merely has to be average. 

If it is, the Hogs’ SEC chances will boil down to the Georgia and Bama games that I already mentioned.  If the Hogs can split those two, and particularly if they can beat Bama, I think they have a real shot at making it to Atlanta.  I’m not so sure Bama will have less than 2 conference losses next season.  

It’s too early to tell, but they will have a bull’s eye on their chest, and will be without defensive stalwarts Terrence Cody, Javier Arenas and (probably) Rolando McCLain. Also, a schedule that features road games at Arkansas, LSU, Tennessee and South Carolina will mean the days of Bama QB Greg Mcelroy getting by on his feminine wiles (yup, I said it…he’s kind of a priss pot) and his best, very poor man’s Jay Barker impersonation, won’t cut it. He and Julio (pronounced Jew Lee O if you are the indescribably bad Reynolds Razorback Stadium Announcer, John George) Jones are going to have to live up to the hype. 

I would never bet too much money on the Hogs escaping back-to-back tilts with Georgia and Alabama with anything other than a couple of Ls around their necks, but if they split or, I dare to even think about it, sweep, then look out. 

3. Assuming that Alabama would be the biggest obstacle in winning the SEC West, what do you see as the pros and cons of how we will match up with them next fall? 

Since I am a glass half empty guy, let’s go cons first: The Tide is much more talented than Arkansas from 1-85.  They are the darlings of the league, and now that College Football Baby Jesus, Tim Tebow is FINALLY, FINALLY, FINALLY!!!! gone, they will return to their perch as league darlings that get every call and yet explain away every on-field loss they’ve ever had (for example, we’re 5-7 against them in the last dozen years and they have excuses for all 5 losses, including the 42-6 1998 beatdown in which Shaun Alexander dove for the sidelines late in the game as if he was going to explode on contact from a Hog defender.)  

And, despite the loss of several key players, they are still going to have a salty defensive, and the prototypical bruising Bama running attack, as well as a head coach that may murder them on the field if they miss assignments. Finally, the biggest con of all–prior to the Liberty Bowl, I had made the same number of clutch kicks as UA PK Alex Tejada. 

Pros: With one of the best players in the country under center, and another year in Bobby Petrino’s system under its belt, the Arkansas offense should be ready for prime time, even against the vaunted Crimson Tide defense.  The atmosphere should be record-setting attendance-like electric.  And, the Arkansas defensive should have some quiet confidence knowing that, but for one Bo Jackson on the original Tecmo Bowlesque run by Trent Richardson and some sorry field position that was caused largely by the Hogs’ offensive struggles, the Razorbacks’ defense actually turned in a decent effort this year in Tuscaloosa.  

So, there you have it. My homework is complete.  I think the Hogs will be a Top 15 team and will have a puncher’s chance at being even better going to Atlanta for the SECCG.  But we are the Chicago Cubs of college football, so, a year from now, we’ll probably be playing yet another rousing game of “Wait ‘Til Next Year”. Can I go play Wii now?