The Blog Hawgs

I really should go ahead and hang ‘em up after last week.  I cannot recall a scenario where I have ever hit 12-4.  Given the fact that 1) I killed last week and 2) I told everyone I killed last week, I urge you to wager at your own risk.  I honestly believe Week 2 is usually the hardest week to predict.  People routinely give too much weight to what happens in Week 1, making it hard to trust the Vegas lines.  You’ve got teams with huge questions (Carolina, Chicago), teams that failed to meet expectations (Houston, Arizona), and good teams that played poorly (New England, San Diego).

My warnings are simple:

1. Do not read too much into Week 1.
2. Avoid the “obvious pick” because it almost always loses.

As always… Don’t blame me if you lose your car or house.

HOUSTON (+7.5) v. Tennessee

The Texans were in great position to win this game on the road last year.  Red Zone turnovers stopped Houston from picking up its first real marquee franchise win.  I said earlier that I believe Tennessee is in for a tough season.

CAROLINA (+7) v. Atlanta

Here is the Week 2 Obvious Game.  Vegas is begging you to take Atlanta.  What you may not know is the Falcons looked terrible last week.  Philadelphia scored 3 touchdowns on defense and special teams, pushing that score to a blowout.  The Panthers will cover and possibly win.

St. Louis v. WASHINGTON (-10)

The Rams are at least a year and maybe 2 away from playing .500 football.  I’m not willing to quit on this Washington team just yet.  A lot of teams will go to the Meadowlands and lose to the Giants.

NEW ORLEANS (pick) v. Philadelphia

Another rule:  Never take Kevin Kolb v. Drew Brees.  With a healthy McNabb Philly probably wins this game.  Either way, I think this could be the most entertaining game of the weekend.

New England v. NY JETS (+4.5)

New York is doing everything they can to tempt fate.  After watching every snap of their game against Houston, I am a believer in the Jets defense.  New England needs to run the ball to win, and I’m not sure they can.

OAKLAND (+3) v. Kansas City

I think the Raiders may be the surprise team of the AFC West.  They should have won last week.  Giving Richard Seymour a week to practice, I think this defensive could really be pretty good.  Kansas City showed signs of life, but I’ll take the points with the Sliver and Black.

Arizona v. JACKSONVILLE (-3)

This line has moved a point-and-a-half towards Arizona, and I just cannot fathom why.  Jacksonville is a much improved team over last year, and Arizona has to travel over 3 time zones to play an early game.  I love this play.

Cincinnati v. GREEN BAY (-9.5)

It is very tempting to go with the Bengals here based on their defense against Denver.  But I still believe Aaron Rodgers is one of the best QBs in the NFL.  I also think Green Bay may be the best team in teh NFC.  Smells like a 2 TD win for the Pack.

Minnesota v. DETROIT (+10.5)

I cannot explain it.  This is a gut pick.

TAMPA BAY (+5) v. Buffalo

The bigger question is, Will anyone watch this game?

Seattle v. SAN FRANCISCO (-1.5)

I like Seattle and think they played well in Week 1.  Very hard pick for me.  I’ll go reluctantly with the home team.  I will say this:  Whichever team wins this game will win the NFC West.

Pittsburgh v. CHICAGO (+3)        

Chicago absolutely must win this game.  They had the Green Bay game won despite getting zilch from the running game.  I’ll take the home team getting points.

Cleveland v. DENVER (-3)

Like you can ever pick Cleveland to win a game in Denver.  I think we find out this week if the Broncos are a true sleeper or just fortunate.

Baltimore v. SAN DIEGO (-3.5)

I spent some time on this one.  It basically boils down to this:  I think the Baltimore defense is old, slower, and just not as good.  Rex Ryan got out at just the right time.  San Diego should right the ship at home this week.

NY GIANTS (+2.5) v. Dallas

I admit that I could be turned around on this Dallas team.  For now, though, I’m going with the G-men and the power running game.  If Dallas can stop that and win this game, I’ll have to re-think my pre-season NFC East picks.

Indianapolis v. MIAMI (+3.5)

I’ll take the home team getting points on Monday night, especially when the visitors are so weak at the receiver spot.

—————————————————————————————————————————————————-

Record ATS:  12-4 after Week 1