The Blog Hawgs

“Have a very good football team… I’ve never been more anxious to coach a football team.” Florida Gator Head Coach Urban Meyer (July 23, 2009)

Coming off two national championships in the past three years, the University of Florida has emerged as the best program in college football.  Head Coach Urban Meyer has the Gators at the top of the college football world, and this group may be even better than last year.  With a loaded defense coming back (everyone on the two-deep from 2008) and the best player in the game (Tim Tebow), the Gators are poised to head back to the SEC Championship Game and perhaps another BCS title.

A key element of any championship team is an experienced quarterback.  The Gators have the best team leader in football in Tim Tebow.  With 2 championships and a Heisman Trophy under his belt, there is little left for Tebow to prove.  A throwback in the sense that he actually seems to enjoy college, Tim Tebow eschewed the big money awaiting him in the NFL to try and win yet another championship in Gainesville.

You cannot talk about Tebow without addressing his strong convictions and the sometimes-nauseating media coverage.  To say he has seized his moment in the sun would be dramatically understating what he has done.  In response to a question at SEC Media Days about why he came back Tebow said, “You know…I think the important things that I looked at were number one, was the opportunity that I had to have an influence in the state of Florida and around the South, for the U.S. for that matter.”  Unlike Thom Brennaman, I do not believe my life would be altered forever if I spent just a few minutes around this kid.  But I do believe he has a confidence about him that helps him lead the Gators to great heights. There is little doubting that Tim Tebow is the best college football player in the country, and he has the tools around him that make him even better.

Emmanuel Moody is a game-changing back.  According to Meyer, “Emmanuel looks terrific.  He physically looks fabulous.”  Meyer has been in search of a big-time back that can lineup and wear down opponents, and this may finally be the year the Gators have that weapon.  Between Moody, Chris Rainey, and Jeff Demps, Florida appears to have a growing stable of top-quality backs that can take some of the pressure off Tebow in the running game.

While Percy Harvin has moved on to the NFL’s Minnesota Vikings, there are plenty of talented athletes left in Gainesville that are eager to take his place.  The biggest question at the position right now is whether or not Riley Cooper returns.  The two-sport star was drafted by the Texas Rangers in June, and he still has not made a decision about whether or not to turn pro in baseball and forego his senior season.  Deonte Thompson projects as one of the leaders at the position with experience and speed to burn.  And David Nelson is coming off a strong finish to the 2009 season, hoping to make a big impact as the Gators defend their title.  Also, look for Demps to lineup as a slot receiver/running back hybrid, much like Harvin has done the past few seasons.  True freshman Andre Dubose will also get a shot at that role early.

The go-to receiver this season looks to be the tight end.  Aaron Hernandez is big and mobile.  Even more important, he appears to have developed a strong bond with Tebow.  With the quarterback’s trust firmly in place, Hernandez should expect to have a big senior year.

All-SEC twin brothers Mike (6′ 5″, 320 lbs) and Maurkice (6′ 5″, 318 lbs) Pouncey  are back to lead a very talented (and big) offensive line.  The right and left guards bookend Sam Robey, the new starting center at Florida.  Carl Johnson started 8 games last year at left tackle and returns.  Marcus Gilbert projects as the starting tackle on the right side.

The defense is what makes this group of Gators so menacing.  All eleven starters and their backups return from a championship defense in 2008.  Teams are going to struggle to score on Florida, which will give the offense time to break in its new receivers and offensive line unit.  Coach Meyer recently said, “We’re very confident, very comfortable with who we have in the middle of our defense right now.”  The center of the defensive line is Lawrence Marsh who can both stuff the run and get to the quarterback from the interior.  Jermaine Cunningham and Carlos Dunlap return as premiere rush ends and expect to meet in the backfield regularly.  Unsung but productive tackle Terron Sanders rounds out a stout front wall.

What Tebow is to the offense, Brando Spikes is to the defense.  The two are quite different off the field, with Tebow embracing the media while Spikes avoids them.  On the field, though, Spikes runs the show defensively.  A.J. Jones is back to man the strong side linebacker spot, and Ryan Stamper returns on the weak side.  This is the type of linebacking crew that can make Coach Meyer boast about his confidence up the middle.

The secondary is loaded.  Joe Hadden is a can’t-miss future NFL cornerback.  Janoris Jenkins faces a potential suspension after his arrest this offseason, but he will certainly be a big factor on the field once Coach Meyer lets him play again.  Ahmad Black and Major Wright also return with great speed and coverage abilities.  Many believe sophomore Will Hill will get on the field sooner than later, potentially as a nickel back or in the rotation at safety.

OUTLOOK

The road to Atlanta runs through Gainesville.  The SEC Championship Game has become a de facto national semi-final, so winning there would launch Florida to Pasadena and a chance at back-to-back championships.  The schedule sets up well for a run at 12-0, and potentially a re-match with Alabama at the SEC Championship Game.

September opens with a glorified scrimmage against Charleston Southern before Troy invades The Swamp.  The Trojans will put up a bit more of a fight, getting Florida good and ready for Tennessee.  The Volunteers are at least a year away from competing at a championship level and should offer little resistance.  The month ends with a dangerous trip to Kentucky after the rivalry week.

Florida is unbeaten after their open week under Urban Meyer, and that is what they get before the most difficult road trip of the season at LSU.  The Tigers are not quite back to the level we saw in 2006 and 2007, so don’t be surprised if Florida comes away with a win.  The most dangerous home game on the schedule actually comes from Arkansas.  The Hogs head to Gainesville for Homecoming the week after LSU.  You’ll hear lots of comparisons to the Ole Miss game from last year, but the Gators will be ready this time.  The following week includes a trip to Starkville and Mississippi State before ending the month on Halloween against Georgia in Jacksonville.  That should be a party!  It should also be a tough, hard fought victory for Florida.

Vanderbilt starts the month of November at The Swamp in what should be a good “relaxer” for the Gators.  Florida heads up to see the Ol’ Ball Coach the second week of November before heading home to close the season against Florida International and Florida State.

The schedule is tough, but it is also manageable.  This is the schedule of a champion.  Expect Florida to at the very least claim another SEC East crown.

Most likely:  It’s very difficult to predict an unbeaten season.  There are enough “trap games” and difficult roadies to expect Florida to lose one.  The 2 most likely spots are at LSU or against Georgia in Jacksonville.

With a lucky break:  The Gators have a great chance to go unbeaten.  Taking care of business away from The Swamp means a very likely perfect regular season and SEC Championship.

Best case scenario:  Florida hoists the trophy in Pasadena as back-to-back National Champs, Tim Tebow wins his second Heisman Trophy, and Urban Meyer signs a 20-year extension.  (I was running out of ways to imagine things getting better.)

Bold Prediction:  Florida goes into Baton Rouge and wins by 2 touchdowns.