After years of futility and three excruciatingly close years, the Commodores finally broke through for a bowl game last season.  The reward for such a remarkable feat?  A trip to Nashville!  Wait…did I say trip?  I meant bus ride across town.

To be honest, those kids may have been disappointed but playing in December was a new experience.  The extra bowl practices combined with a Music City Bowl win over Boston College sent the Dores into the offseason with high hopes for continued success in 2009.  We love optimism, but the 2009 campaign will prove to be more difficult if for no other reason than Vandy can no longer sneak up on anyone.  Vanderbilt finally has the athletes on both sides of the ball to compete.  Sadly they do not have enough to win.

Vanderbilt struggled to score with any consistency last season.  There is hope for 2009, but they must see improved play at the quarterback position.  Senior Mackenzi Adams comes back to lead an offense that ranked 112th in passing offense and 110th in passing efficiency.  Adams completed less than 50% of his passes and only had 5 TD passes compared to 8 interceptions.  His ability to scramble and make plays saved the Commodores, but Matt Jones he is not. Larry Smith, who started the Music City Bowl, will provide competition for the QB1 spot.  Smith is more of a caretaker that can scramble when need be.  Defenses will not need to devote a safety or MLB to spy on Smith during the course of a game. 

Vandy has lots of options at running back.  The problem for them, though, is that none of these options have proven to be exceedingly good.  Jared Hankins projects as the #1 guy to start the season, just as he did in 2008.  A foot injury derailed what could have been a 1,000 yard season and limited his activity in the spring.  Kennard Reeves is a bigger back (6’0″, 202 lbs) but only carried the ball 35 times last year, most of that coming in the final regular season game against Wake Forest.  Expect coaches to limit Hankins early and try to get Reeves and Gaston Miller (5′ 7″, 175 lbs) some carries in an effort to lighten the load. 

The receiving corps looks to be an upgrade for Vanderbilt this season.  Two transfers and some more experienced talent could help the quarterbacks’ numbers.  Junior Terence Jeffers is eligible this season after sitting out 2008 per NCAA rules after transferring from UConn.  In 2007 he led the Huskies with 44 catches and has the speed to take the ball to the house.  Sophomore Udom Umoh looks to build on his performance in the Music City Bowl where he hauled in 3 passes — his only three all season.  Sophomore transfer from Minnesota, Tray Herndon could also contribute in Vanderbilt’s three-receiver sets.  Redshirt freshman Akeem Dunham, a converted defensive back, could also press for playing time.  Sophomore tight end Brandon Barden (6′ 5″, 245 lbs) led the team with 4 TD receptions in 2008.  Barden hopes to emerge as one of the elite SEC pass-catching tight ends in 2009.

All five starters on the offensive line had to be replaced in 2008, and they experienced the expected growing pains.  The group gelled, though, and now looks to be a reliable force in 2009.  The Commodores are led by senior center Bradley Vierling.  Senior right tackle Thomas Welch (6′ 7″, 310 lbs) is the star of the line.  Projected as a sure-fire NFL draft pick, Welch leads the way when Vandy decides to run to the right side.  Junior Reilly Lauer (6′ 6″, 275) is a converted DT that continues to develop on the left side.  Lean and athletic, Lauer could emerge as a real star on the left.  Senior Eric Hensley moved inside last season to take over at right guard.  He has the ability to slide outside if injuries warrant, but guard is his more natural position.  Kyle Fisher rounds out the offensive front.  A sophomore, Fisher is versatile enough to slide outside if need be although he started the final four games of 2008 at left guard.

Throughout their years of mediocrity (and that is being kind), Vanderbilt has established itself as a reliably good defensive team.  Year in and year out, the Dores put pressure on opposing offenses to execute.  Despite losing DJ Moore (Chicago) and Reshard Langford (Philadelphia) to the NFL, the Vanderbilt defense will apply pressure to SEC offenses all season.

The entire front seven returns and senior CB Myron Lewis is back to lead a talented secondary.  Lewis projects as the best pro prospect on the team.  He and his secondary mates will benefit from a strong front line that will put pressure on quarterbacks.  Senior Broderick Stewart leads a very talented defensive line that will pose problems to any offense.  He missed the final two games last season with a foot injury but is ready to dominate the interior.  Also on the outside, Vanderbilt has ultra-talented senior, and Conway, AR native,  Steven Stone (6′ 5″, 272 lbs).  Stone piled up 5 sacks last season and can play the run as well as pass rush.

Senior Patrick Benoist led the team in tackles last season with 109, and he returns to anchor the linebacker corp.  Only 6-feet tall and 220 lbs, Benoist plays much bigger and with great passion.  Chris Marve handled the middle linebacker duties last year like a veteran despite playing extensively as a freshman.  His experience will only help clog the middle of the field.  John Stokes is tall and lean (6′ 5″, 228 lbs) and can move very well at the other outside position. Only an injured shoulder could slow him down last season.

As we mentioned, Lewis is the best player and group leader in the secondary.  At 6′ 3″, 205 lbs Lewis looks to join Moore in the NFL after this season.  On the other side of the field the Commodores will rely on a converted WR, sophomore Jamie Graham.  Ryan Hamilton finished third on the team in tackles last year from his free safety position and picked off 3 Jevan Sneed passes in the upset of Ole Miss.  Look for Hamilton to emerge as one of the SEC’s best this year.  Replacing Langford at the strong safety position is Sean Richardson, a sophomore who made a name for himself as a special teams all-star in 2008.

Vanderbilt turns to redshirt freshman Ryan Fowler to take over the placekicking duties.  Like all freshmen, Fowler will need to prove he can convert in clutch moments early to ease the fears of the Vanderbilt faithful.  Senior Brett Upson is back as the starting punter, carrying a 40.1 yard-per-punt average last season.

OUTLOOK

Vanderbilt will never be a regular contender for the SEC East crown, let alone overall SEC Championships.  That said, Bobby Johnson has built a hell of a program from virtually the ground up.  Their facilities lag far behind the rest of the SEC, their recruiting budget is laughably small, and the Commodores have no winning tradition.  Returning to a bowl game this year should be the team’s goal.  If the breaks go right, they may even get to leave Nashville for the post-season in 2009.  Navigating the typically treacherous SEC schedule could prove too much for a team with no offensive identity that relies upon its defense to win games.  Twelve games in twelve weeks will take a toll on this group, likely leaving the Commodores home for Christmas.

Vanderbilt should survive September at 2-2 with wins over Western Carolina and Rice.  Ole Miss will look to avenge last season’s embarrassing loss in Oxford.  Coach Johnson would be wise to cancel the trip to LSU if the conference will let him.  October looks like more of the same with winnable games at home against Mississippi State and on the road at Army.  Georgia and South Carolina are games where Vandy should compete, but depth in October will start to make a difference.  Georgia Tech hits Nashville on Halloween in an interesting non-conference affair.  Paul Johnson is building something in Atlanta, but you just never know what may happen with these games.  The smart money says the Jackets will be a little better and prevail, even on the road. 

November starts with a trip to Gainesville and The Swamp.  Kentucky heads to Nashville the next week, which sets up a critical game for both schools.  If Vandy has anyone left standing at this point in the season, this could be a winner.  Vanderbilt closes the season at Knoxville before finally getting their open week…about 6 weeks too late.

Most likely:  The Commodores fall to 4-8 after being worn down by a relentless schedule.

With a lucky break:  Vandy could end up 6-6 with wins over Kentucky and Georgia Tech.

Best case scenario:  8-4 with additional wins over Ole Miss and South Carolina.

“Take nothing on its looks; take everything on evidence. There’s no better rule.”  Charles Dickens, Great Expectations

 On its face, 2009 looks like a potential banner season for the Ole Miss Rebels.  Fresh from an impressive 9-4 campaign in 2008 that was capped by six consecutive wins, including a 47-34 Cotton Bowl triumph over the Texas Tech Red Raiders, Houston Nutt’s squad is this year’s off-season media darling.

The Rebels can be found in most preseason Top Ten lists, and, undoubtedly, there is a lot to like about Ole Miss as it heads into 2009.  First, the Ole Miss schedule is remarkably soft.  In fact, it’s so soft that when I read the transcript of Houston Nutt’s SEC media days press conference this week, in which he was asked to “talk about having to play in tough environments such as Memphis, South Carolina, and Vanderbilt” I actually blushed.

Memphis is the premier non-conference opponent on the Ole Miss slate. ‘Nuff said.  Additionally, the SEC schedule sets up like a stacked deck of cards for Ole Miss with its toughest road games coming at Auburn and South Carolina.  The Rebels host Alabama, Tennessee, LSU and Arkansas and also have the good fortune of avoiding perennial SEC powerhouse Georgia. 

 Most importantly though, they miss a revenge-fueled Florida squad led by College Football Savior/modern-day Knute Rockne, Tim Tebow.

 If that is not enough to get Johnny Rebs everywhere all Hotty Toddied, they are also undoubtedly delighted to have transplanted Texan quarterback Jevan Snead returning to the helm after he blossomed last year in the Magnolia State.

 Snead was a much-heralded prep All-American who originally signed with Texas, but transferred to Ole Miss after playing five games at UT in 2006 as a freshman.  In 2008, his first season in the SEC, Snead passed for a salty 2,762 yards and 26 touchdowns. 

He also threw 13 interceptions, but eight of those came in the month of September.  The growing pains were most evident in a four-interception clunker of a loss against Vanderbilt in Oxford.

Snead responded to that low point the following week by leading Ole Miss to an improbable 31-30 win over Florida in Gainesville that was the first of nine consecutive games (to end the season) in which he avoided throwing multiple interceptions.   He is in position to be one of the best quarterbacks in college football in the coming season.

On the other side of the ball, Ole Miss returns eight starters from a stout 2008 defense, as well as its enigmatic headliner, the oft-injured, but uber-talented NFL defensive end in waiting, Greg Hardy.

 Throw in 2008 1^st team All-SEC placekicker Joshua Shene, who is the active conference leader in field goals with 42, and it is easy to see why the national sports punditocracy is aflutter over the Rebels.

But, history has taught us a number of valuable, but painful, lessons about Houston Nutt.  Even his fiercest detractors would admit that he has the innate ability to snatch unlikely victories from the jaws of defeat, often at times when seemingly everyone outside of his immediate family thinks the train is coming off of the tracks.

But, unfortunately for Ole Miss fans (and Arkansas fans during his tumultuous tenure in Fayetteville), he also has displayed a consistent, and mind-numbingly frustrating inability to sustain prosperity. 

I won’t recount the 1998 season, because it contained a confluence of events that led me to (at least in my mind’s eye) erase a few months of my life as if I was a character in the Will Smith movie “Men in Black”.

But I DO remember 2003, and the galvanizing 4-0 start for the Razorbacks that featured a blistering of Texas on a sweltering day in September and a come-from-behind, two-overtime win over Alabama in Tuscaloosa that was not for the faint of heart.

I also remember that at that point, a pattern began to emerge for Houston Nutt–extreme highs were met with equally extreme lows.  Nutt and the then Top 10 Hogs were riding a wave of momentum in ‘03 when they suffered a nationally-televised three-game losing streak by dropping home tilts versus Auburn and Florida before losing to Eli Manning and the Rebels in Oxford.

 

Then, in 2006, after a 2-year rebuilding effort and dalliances with Nebraska and LSU, Nutt again brought the Hogs to the brink of college football glory (the SEC Championship Game and, with a win, a potential BCS Championship Game appearance) only to have Razorback fans “Fish”ing for Kleenex.

A backfield that included 2-time HeismanTrophy runner-up Darren McFadden, fellow NFL first rounder Felix Jones and a heckuva third option, Peyton Hillis, carried the Hogs all the way to a Top 5 national ranking, but wasn’t enough to overcome the yipps that plagued the Nutt era at the University of Arkansas.

The Razorbacks limped to the finish in 2006 with losses to LSU (in Little Rock), Florida (in the SEC Championship Game) and Wisconsin (in the Capital One Bowl in Orlando).

I recount these near-misses not for my own, selfish, bitter purposes (OK, maybe a little) but instead to sound a cautionary note to Ole Miss fans–remember your history, as well as that of your head coach.

Ole Miss, despite the fact its gameday traditions include a “Walk of Champions” has not won a conference championship since the passage of the Civil Rights Act.  That is a long, 4 ½ decade walk (but it has featured the best tailgating of any stroll you have ever seen–just ask any Rebels fan).

And, its current leader, Nutt, has shown that he is what he is–a skilled, yet flawed coach that can invigorate a moribund program and bring notable success–but one who cannot lead the pack and finish with a kick.

He has earned SEC Coach of the Year honors twice (2001 and 2006) and has Ole Miss on the college football map, but he has never had a team finish in the Top 10 nationally, and was 2-6 in bowl games at Arkansas.

That is the kind of evidence that suggests looks are deceiving and the Ole Miss Rebels’ Great Expectations will end in great disappointment in 2009.

Ole Miss Offense:

Returning starters: 9

Key Players: Jevan Snead, QB, Dexter McLuster, WR, Cordera Eason, RB, Bradley Sowell, LT

One to Watch: Bradley Sowell, LT

Ole Miss Defense:

Returning Starters: 8

Key Players: Greg Hardy, DE, Kendrick Lewis, FS, Patrick Trahan, WLB

One to Watch: Patrick Trahan, WLB

Key Game(s): @ South Carolina Sept. 26, @ Vanderbilt Oct. 3, Alabama Oct. 10, Arkansas Oct. 24 and LSU Nov. 21

Schedule/Predicted Result: (8-4)

9/6 at Memphis W
9/12 OPEN DATE
9/19 SE Louisiana W
9/26 at South Carolina L
10/3 at Vanderbilt W
10/10 Alabama L
10/17 UAB W
10/24 Arkansas L
10/31 at Auburn W
11/7 Northern Arizona W
11/14 Tennessee W
11/21 LSU L
11/28 at Miss State W