“If you turn on a game film, watch a team, all 11 players on the field on any given snap, play with a relentless effort, play with a passion for the game of football for 60 minutes of that game, we’ll have a successful season.” – Mississippi State Head Football Coach Dan Mullen (July 22, 2009)

Bulldog Football!  Catch the excitement!

It looks to be a long year in Starkville as Dan Mullen takes the helm of a program that has sunk to the bottom of the SEC West over the past 10 years.  Ever since their surprise 1998 SEC Western Division crown, the Bulldogs have struggled to maintain any level of success.  In steps Dan Mullen, architect of the Florida Gator offense that won 2 national championships in 3 years, to replace the historic yet ultimately mediocre Sylvester Croom.  Coach Mullen has grand plans.  “There will be a lot of similarities between our programs and the programs that (Urban Meyer) has done at Bowling Green, Florida, and Utah.”  That may fire up the booster clubs across Mississippi, but the fact is the Bulldogs are a few years away from making a statement in the SEC.

What Mullen has going for him, though, is that success is not unprecedented at Mississippi State.  Working against him is the recent emergence of Ole Miss as a power in the West.  If he can find a way to horde some offensive talent with his player-friendly system, Carl Torbush – the newly hired defensive coordinator – can build on the tradition of solid defensive teams at State.

The immediate challenge for this crew is the offensive transformation.  A West Coast offense under Croom, the Bulldogs have begun the transition to the spread offense.  Unfortunately for Mullen, Tim Tebow stayed in Gainesville.  The future at quarterback is much heralded freshman Tyler Russell, but MSU will likely turn to Tyson Lee to start the season.  The senior ran the Bulldog offense last year and has spring practice under his belt.  Mullen expects “the competition at (quarterback) to be pretty stiff” when fall camp opens.  Don’t be surprised to see more than one quarterback get significant playing time.

Anthony Dixon will be the star of the show while the quarterback position sorts itself out.  Dixon enters his senior season just 609 yards short of being the team’s all-time rushing leader.  He will have to wait one game to get started on his chase, though, after being suspended for the opener following a DUI arrest in July.  Christian Ducre will again spend time backing up Dixon.  Expect to see Mullen get Ducre on the field as a pass-catcher, as the wide receiver group needs a lot of time to mature.

Kendrick Cook, a DJ Williams-type player, will lead the receivers this season.  At SEC Media Days Mullen said, “We’re going to use Kendrick in a lot of different ways, whether he’s attached, a motion fullback, or flexed out” wide.  Redshirt freshman O’Neal Wilder could see significant playing time, too.  True freshman Chad Bumphis has created a lot of hope for the future at wide out.

The mammoth Derek Sherrod (6’ 7”, 310 lbs) is back to anchor the offensive line.  With some experience under his (larg) belt, Sherrod hopes to lead this group as it makes the transition form West Coast to the spread.  Pass protection has been a point of emphasis since Mullen’s arrival, and Sherrod & Co. will have to get better.  (Sound familiar, Hog fans?) 

With only five returning starters, the Bulldogs need to retool their defense.  Coach Mullen realized that early and got one of the best defensive minds in the business in Carl Torbush.  He and his coaching staff will look to linebacker K.J. Wright to lead this inexperienced but talented crew.  Senior Jamar Chaney joins Wright as a defensive leader.  If his ankle has healed completely, Chaney will help bolster the middle of the defense.  According to Torbush Chaney looks to be back to full strength.

Newcomer Pernell McPhee will anchor the Bulldog defensive front.  Sophmore Sean Ferguson is back to provide some stability to the front.  The defensive line will definitely need to create pressure on opposing quarterbacks while the secondary rebuilds this season.

To the delight of Hog fans, safety Derek Pegues is finally gone, as is Keith Fitzhugh.  Marcus Washington is the only returning starter.  Newcomers Jonathan Banks and Dennis Thames will be given a chance to earn playing time as true freshman – although Thames still faces a long road back after his arrest for public intoxication this summer.

Look for a new kicker and punter to lead the Bulldog special teams.  JUCO transfer Sean Brauchle is the projected starting placekicker, while Heath Hutchins should supplant Blake McAdams as the team’s punter.

OUTLOOK

There is no way to sugar-coat this:  Mississippi State is going to struggle.  That said, they should be much more fun to watch this year.  September starts with in-state SWAC program Jackson State coming to Starkville to begin the Mullen Era.  The Dogs head on the road the next two weeks, though, with trips to Auburn and Vanderbilt.  If MSU hopes to find its way to a bowl this season, getting off to a fast start is imperative.  If things come together in fall camp, those are both winnable games.  September ends with LSU invading Starkville.

The Bulldogs have an interesting matchup with Georgia Tech (who plays two other SEC teams – Vandy and Georgia – this season) to start October, followed by Homecoming against the Houston Cougars.  Mississippi State makes a rare trip to a Sun Belt Conference foe, traveling to Middle Tennessee State in the middle of the month before the “Teacher v. Student” game with Florida in Starkville.  Kentucky hosts MSU on Halloween in what will be a must-win game if the Dogs harbor hopes of the post-season.

The open weeks comes right before Alabama comes to Starkville, so if you’re looking for upset look here.  The Dogs travel to Little Rock to take on the Razorbacks on November 21 before heading back home for the Egg Bowl the following week.  Needless to say, this is a tough schedule for a team on the re-build.

Most likely:  4-8 with wins over Jackson State, Middle Tennessee State, and Houston.  Vanderbilt early and Kentucky on Halloween look like the most likely SEC wins, and it’s hard to imagine them winning both.  A late-season upset is not out of the question.  This is a tough schedule aside from JSU.  MTSU is expected to contend for the SBC title, and Houston can score points.

With a lucky break:  It all depends on how quickly the passing game comes together.  Thinking positively, 6-6 is within reach if MSU can knock off all their non-conference opponents, split with Vandy and Kentucky, and pick up one big upset.

Best Case Scenario:  I just don’t see any way for this team to win more than 8 games, and they should build a statue of Dan Mullen if it happens.  The trip to Starkville is dangerous for the Tide.  It’s hard to win in Little Rock, but the Dogs may catch Arkansas sleeping like the Hogs did LSU last year.  And you just never know what may happen in the Egg Bowl.  Winning two of those three – while almost incomprehensibly unlikely – would set the stage for a major upswing in Starkville.

Bold Prediction:  The Bulldogs knock off Florida, Alabama or Ole Miss this season.

Final Thought:  I’m a Dan Mullen believer.  This team is young and reminds me some of last season’s Arkansas team.  If MSU goes where I think they can get, the SEC West will be the best conference in the country on its own.