After years of futility and three excruciatingly close years, the Commodores finally broke through for a bowl game last season.  The reward for such a remarkable feat?  A trip to Nashville!  Wait…did I say trip?  I meant bus ride across town.

To be honest, those kids may have been disappointed but playing in December was a new experience.  The extra bowl practices combined with a Music City Bowl win over Boston College sent the Dores into the offseason with high hopes for continued success in 2009.  We love optimism, but the 2009 campaign will prove to be more difficult if for no other reason than Vandy can no longer sneak up on anyone.  Vanderbilt finally has the athletes on both sides of the ball to compete.  Sadly they do not have enough to win.

Vanderbilt struggled to score with any consistency last season.  There is hope for 2009, but they must see improved play at the quarterback position.  Senior Mackenzi Adams comes back to lead an offense that ranked 112th in passing offense and 110th in passing efficiency.  Adams completed less than 50% of his passes and only had 5 TD passes compared to 8 interceptions.  His ability to scramble and make plays saved the Commodores, but Matt Jones he is not. Larry Smith, who started the Music City Bowl, will provide competition for the QB1 spot.  Smith is more of a caretaker that can scramble when need be.  Defenses will not need to devote a safety or MLB to spy on Smith during the course of a game. 

Vandy has lots of options at running back.  The problem for them, though, is that none of these options have proven to be exceedingly good.  Jared Hankins projects as the #1 guy to start the season, just as he did in 2008.  A foot injury derailed what could have been a 1,000 yard season and limited his activity in the spring.  Kennard Reeves is a bigger back (6’0″, 202 lbs) but only carried the ball 35 times last year, most of that coming in the final regular season game against Wake Forest.  Expect coaches to limit Hankins early and try to get Reeves and Gaston Miller (5′ 7″, 175 lbs) some carries in an effort to lighten the load. 

The receiving corps looks to be an upgrade for Vanderbilt this season.  Two transfers and some more experienced talent could help the quarterbacks’ numbers.  Junior Terence Jeffers is eligible this season after sitting out 2008 per NCAA rules after transferring from UConn.  In 2007 he led the Huskies with 44 catches and has the speed to take the ball to the house.  Sophomore Udom Umoh looks to build on his performance in the Music City Bowl where he hauled in 3 passes — his only three all season.  Sophomore transfer from Minnesota, Tray Herndon could also contribute in Vanderbilt’s three-receiver sets.  Redshirt freshman Akeem Dunham, a converted defensive back, could also press for playing time.  Sophomore tight end Brandon Barden (6′ 5″, 245 lbs) led the team with 4 TD receptions in 2008.  Barden hopes to emerge as one of the elite SEC pass-catching tight ends in 2009.

All five starters on the offensive line had to be replaced in 2008, and they experienced the expected growing pains.  The group gelled, though, and now looks to be a reliable force in 2009.  The Commodores are led by senior center Bradley Vierling.  Senior right tackle Thomas Welch (6′ 7″, 310 lbs) is the star of the line.  Projected as a sure-fire NFL draft pick, Welch leads the way when Vandy decides to run to the right side.  Junior Reilly Lauer (6′ 6″, 275) is a converted DT that continues to develop on the left side.  Lean and athletic, Lauer could emerge as a real star on the left.  Senior Eric Hensley moved inside last season to take over at right guard.  He has the ability to slide outside if injuries warrant, but guard is his more natural position.  Kyle Fisher rounds out the offensive front.  A sophomore, Fisher is versatile enough to slide outside if need be although he started the final four games of 2008 at left guard.

Throughout their years of mediocrity (and that is being kind), Vanderbilt has established itself as a reliably good defensive team.  Year in and year out, the Dores put pressure on opposing offenses to execute.  Despite losing DJ Moore (Chicago) and Reshard Langford (Philadelphia) to the NFL, the Vanderbilt defense will apply pressure to SEC offenses all season.

The entire front seven returns and senior CB Myron Lewis is back to lead a talented secondary.  Lewis projects as the best pro prospect on the team.  He and his secondary mates will benefit from a strong front line that will put pressure on quarterbacks.  Senior Broderick Stewart leads a very talented defensive line that will pose problems to any offense.  He missed the final two games last season with a foot injury but is ready to dominate the interior.  Also on the outside, Vanderbilt has ultra-talented senior, and Conway, AR native,  Steven Stone (6′ 5″, 272 lbs).  Stone piled up 5 sacks last season and can play the run as well as pass rush.

Senior Patrick Benoist led the team in tackles last season with 109, and he returns to anchor the linebacker corp.  Only 6-feet tall and 220 lbs, Benoist plays much bigger and with great passion.  Chris Marve handled the middle linebacker duties last year like a veteran despite playing extensively as a freshman.  His experience will only help clog the middle of the field.  John Stokes is tall and lean (6′ 5″, 228 lbs) and can move very well at the other outside position. Only an injured shoulder could slow him down last season.

As we mentioned, Lewis is the best player and group leader in the secondary.  At 6′ 3″, 205 lbs Lewis looks to join Moore in the NFL after this season.  On the other side of the field the Commodores will rely on a converted WR, sophomore Jamie Graham.  Ryan Hamilton finished third on the team in tackles last year from his free safety position and picked off 3 Jevan Sneed passes in the upset of Ole Miss.  Look for Hamilton to emerge as one of the SEC’s best this year.  Replacing Langford at the strong safety position is Sean Richardson, a sophomore who made a name for himself as a special teams all-star in 2008.

Vanderbilt turns to redshirt freshman Ryan Fowler to take over the placekicking duties.  Like all freshmen, Fowler will need to prove he can convert in clutch moments early to ease the fears of the Vanderbilt faithful.  Senior Brett Upson is back as the starting punter, carrying a 40.1 yard-per-punt average last season.

OUTLOOK

Vanderbilt will never be a regular contender for the SEC East crown, let alone overall SEC Championships.  That said, Bobby Johnson has built a hell of a program from virtually the ground up.  Their facilities lag far behind the rest of the SEC, their recruiting budget is laughably small, and the Commodores have no winning tradition.  Returning to a bowl game this year should be the team’s goal.  If the breaks go right, they may even get to leave Nashville for the post-season in 2009.  Navigating the typically treacherous SEC schedule could prove too much for a team with no offensive identity that relies upon its defense to win games.  Twelve games in twelve weeks will take a toll on this group, likely leaving the Commodores home for Christmas.

Vanderbilt should survive September at 2-2 with wins over Western Carolina and Rice.  Ole Miss will look to avenge last season’s embarrassing loss in Oxford.  Coach Johnson would be wise to cancel the trip to LSU if the conference will let him.  October looks like more of the same with winnable games at home against Mississippi State and on the road at Army.  Georgia and South Carolina are games where Vandy should compete, but depth in October will start to make a difference.  Georgia Tech hits Nashville on Halloween in an interesting non-conference affair.  Paul Johnson is building something in Atlanta, but you just never know what may happen with these games.  The smart money says the Jackets will be a little better and prevail, even on the road. 

November starts with a trip to Gainesville and The Swamp.  Kentucky heads to Nashville the next week, which sets up a critical game for both schools.  If Vandy has anyone left standing at this point in the season, this could be a winner.  Vanderbilt closes the season at Knoxville before finally getting their open week…about 6 weeks too late.

Most likely:  The Commodores fall to 4-8 after being worn down by a relentless schedule.

With a lucky break:  Vandy could end up 6-6 with wins over Kentucky and Georgia Tech.

Best case scenario:  8-4 with additional wins over Ole Miss and South Carolina.