Great Expectations–2009 Ole Miss Preview
Posted by Adam Butler on July 24, 2009
![johnny reb[1]](http://papasmoustache.files.wordpress.com/2009/07/johnny-reb11.jpg?w=111&h=150 "johnny reb[1]")
“Take nothing on its looks; take everything on evidence. There’s no better rule.” Charles Dickens, Great Expectations
On its face, 2009 looks like a potential banner season for the Ole Miss Rebels. Fresh from an impressive 9-4 campaign in 2008 that was capped by six consecutive wins, including a 47-34 Cotton Bowl triumph over the Texas Tech Red Raiders, Houston Nutt’s squad is this year’s off-season media darling.
The Rebels can be found in most preseason Top Ten lists, and, undoubtedly, there is a lot to like about Ole Miss as it heads into 2009. First, the Ole Miss schedule is remarkably soft. In fact, it’s so soft that when I read the transcript of Houston Nutt’s SEC media days press conference this week, in which he was asked to “talk about having to play in tough environments such as Memphis, South Carolina, and Vanderbilt” I actually blushed.
Memphis is the premier non-conference opponent on the Ole Miss slate. ‘Nuff said. Additionally, the SEC schedule sets up like a stacked deck of cards for Ole Miss with its toughest road games coming at Auburn and South Carolina. The Rebels host Alabama, Tennessee, LSU and Arkansas and also have the good fortune of avoiding perennial SEC powerhouse Georgia.
Most importantly though, they miss a revenge-fueled Florida squad led by College Football Savior/modern-day Knute Rockne, Tim Tebow.
If that is not enough to get Johnny Rebs everywhere all Hotty Toddied, they are also undoubtedly delighted to have transplanted Texan quarterback Jevan Snead returning to the helm after he blossomed last year in the Magnolia State.
![snead[1]](http://papasmoustache.files.wordpress.com/2009/07/snead11.jpg?w=150&h=84 "snead[1]")
Snead was a much-heralded prep All-American who originally signed with Texas, but transferred to Ole Miss after playing five games at UT in 2006 as a freshman. In 2008, his first season in the SEC, Snead passed for a salty 2,762 yards and 26 touchdowns.
He also threw 13 interceptions, but eight of those came in the month of September. The growing pains were most evident in a four-interception clunker of a loss against Vanderbilt in Oxford.
Snead responded to that low point the following week by leading Ole Miss to an improbable 31-30 win over Florida in Gainesville that was the first of nine consecutive games (to end the season) in which he avoided throwing multiple interceptions. He is in position to be one of the best quarterbacks in college football in the coming season.
On the other side of the ball, Ole Miss returns eight starters from a stout 2008 defense, as well as its enigmatic headliner, the oft-injured, but uber-talented NFL defensive end in waiting, Greg Hardy.
Throw in 2008 1st team All-SEC placekicker Joshua Shene, who is the active conference leader in field goals with 42, and it is easy to see why the national sports punditocracy is aflutter over the Rebels.
But, history has taught us a number of valuable, but painful, lessons about Houston Nutt. Even his fiercest detractors would admit that he has the innate ability to snatch unlikely victories from the jaws of defeat, often at times when seemingly everyone outside of his immediate family thinks the train is coming off of the tracks.
But, unfortunately for Ole Miss fans (and Arkansas fans during his tumultuous tenure in Fayetteville), he also has displayed a consistent, and mind-numbingly frustrating inability to sustain prosperity.
I won’t recount the 1998 season, because it contained a confluence of events that led me to (at least in my mind’s eye) erase a few months of my life as if I was a character in the Will Smith movie “Men in Black”.
But I DO remember 2003, and the galvanizing 4-0 start for the Razorbacks that featured a blistering of Texas on a sweltering day in September and a come-from-behind, two-overtime win over Alabama in Tuscaloosa that was not for the faint of heart.
I also remember that at that point, a pattern began to emerge for Houston Nutt–extreme highs were met with equally extreme lows. Nutt and the then Top 10 Hogs were riding a wave of momentum in ‘03 when they suffered a nationally-televised three-game losing streak by dropping home tilts versus Auburn and Florida before losing to Eli Manning and the Rebels in Oxford.
"This season could be special."
A backfield that included 2-time HeismanTrophy runner-up Darren McFadden, fellow NFL first rounder Felix Jones and a heckuva third option, Peyton Hillis, carried the Hogs all the way to a Top 5 national ranking, but wasn’t enough to overcome the yipps that plagued the Nutt era at the University of Arkansas.
The Razorbacks limped to the finish in 2006 with losses to LSU (in Little Rock), Florida (in the SEC Championship Game) and Wisconsin (in the Capital One Bowl in Orlando).
I recount these near-misses not for my own, selfish, bitter purposes (OK, maybe a little) but instead to sound a cautionary note to Ole Miss fans–remember your history, as well as that of your head coach.
Ole Miss, despite the fact its gameday traditions include a “Walk of Champions” has not won a conference championship since the passage of the Civil Rights Act. That is a long, 4 ½ decade walk (but it has featured the best tailgating of any stroll you have ever seen–just ask any Rebels fan).
And, its current leader, Nutt, has shown that he is what he is–a skilled, yet flawed coach that can invigorate a moribund program and bring notable success–but one who cannot lead the pack and finish with a kick.
He has earned SEC Coach of the Year honors twice (2001 and 2006) and has Ole Miss on the college football map, but he has never had a team finish in the Top 10 nationally, and was 2-6 in bowl games at Arkansas.
That is the kind of evidence that suggests looks are deceiving and the Ole Miss Rebels’ Great Expectations will end in great disappointment in 2009.
Ole Miss Offense:
Returning starters: 9
Key Players: Jevan Snead, QB, Dexter McLuster, WR, Cordera Eason, RB, Bradley Sowell, LT
One to Watch: Bradley Sowell, LT
Ole Miss Defense:
Returning Starters: 8
Key Players: Greg Hardy, DE, Kendrick Lewis, FS, Patrick Trahan, WLB
One to Watch: Patrick Trahan, WLB
Key Game(s): @ South Carolina Sept. 26, @ Vanderbilt Oct. 3, Alabama Oct. 10, Arkansas Oct. 24 and LSU Nov. 21
Schedule/Predicted Result: (8-4)
9/6 at Memphis W
9/12 OPEN DATE
9/19 SE Louisiana W
9/26 at South Carolina L
10/3 at Vanderbilt W
10/10 Alabama L
10/17 UAB W
10/24 Arkansas L
10/31 at Auburn W
11/7 Northern Arizona W
11/14 Tennessee W
11/21 LSU L
11/28 at Miss State W
JUJU said
Great Read AB…do we have an over/under on how many times HDN renounces “Play like a Champion!” in the pre and post game speaches down in Oxford as well as the number of towns in Mississippi that exist from where his players call home? I think Frank is a vey smart man.
Adam Butler said
“Cordera Eason….Meridian, Mississipp”.
krismboydpa said
Adam, one thing you fail to mention is that Houston Nutt’s teams play like warriors. They have one heartbeat. Those teams are special. HE CALLS HIS OWN PLAYS, BRUTHA!
Stave said
That was special…great effort with good vision. Boy I tell you that takes a lot of courage, a lot of heart, bouncing around with two chin straps.
Big expectations for the Nutt this year. Expect to see fingernails flying and Danny on the sideline “not coaching”.
Good Stuff!
JUJU said
How many bills is Tracy Rocker up to btw?
Adam Butler said
Not unexpectedly, the OM Scout site took down the link and thread regarding this preview after a pretty fair, but brief, back-and-forth.
It appears that the admins, and some OM fans, may be as thin-skinned as their Head Coach.
Stave said
Damn, I was getting ready to check on it again…weak!
Brett Kincaid said
There are two threads running now. One on Rivals (http://olemiss.rivals.com/forum.asp?sid=1036&fid=943&style=2&Reset=) and a new one on Scout (http://mbd.scout.com/mb.aspx?s=177&f=1103&t=4533248).
I wish those folks would say Hi when they were here. Southern hospitality and all…
AU Jed said
What’s not to like – 38 commits, 7 deep at running back, & offers extended to the entire Rivals database.
Adam Butler said
It’s always good when a new rule is instituted b/c of your recruiting practices.
VisitingReb said
You guys have a lot of ill will toward Nutt. I’m sure you realize the OM fans current good will toward him is based on the immediate success. Some of us are more cautious and would therefore not be ready to crucify him if your 8-4 prediction occurs. That doesn’t mean we wouldn’t be disappointed. I always look for websites and blogs where real debate occurs, but mostly I find fans that can’t handle disagreement nor disappointment. I understand, I’ve been disappointed a few times. Good luck to the Razorbacks and to your Blog.
Brett Kincaid said
Thanks for stopping by, VisitingReb. Our hope is that we can get into some good debates over here. Most fans seems to have short fuses, but I think you’ll find that Adam and I take it all with a grain of salt. Heck, I love disagreement. Just ask my wife.
krismboydpa said
To VisitingReb:
That is a very fair and well-worded response. I, too, was very excited when Nutt was at Arkansas for the first several years. It does, however and unfortunately, fade. Good luck to you guys.
Adam Butler said
Visiting Reb–
Thanks for the comment, and glad you visited. I hope you will be a regular. I don’t have as much ill will toward HDN as one would think–I have just decided that he is what he has been–a good coach that can’t stay out of his own way long enough to finish his best seasons. Believe me–I was a Kool Aid drinker until 2003, and almost a believer again in ’06, until the 3-game losing streak to end the season and all the off-field drama.
I think he will, in sum, be good for OM, but if the fan base is expecting him to finish in the Top 10 this season, history suggests you will be sorely disappointed.
That said, if I am wrong, I will come back and own it. I look forward to seeing how it all plays out. Again, thanks for the note.
Blake Freeman said
Cant wait for Oct.24th in Oxford, the Hogs Offence will run wild, so will the Ole Miss Offence, HOGS 51 Rebels 42.
Brett Kincaid said
Worth noting…
In an effort to spread the good word about our new blog, I posted on Scout.com’s Ole Miss fan site. We figured that would be a good way to stir up discussion and drive traffic to this new venture. After a lively discussion on one thread, it was taken down. I started another one, largely asking why it was deleted. That led to a 500+ view, 20+ comment thread about OM, HogBlawgs, and why each is demented.
I have now been restricted to “read only” on their site and the second thread has been deleted. Essentially I am on double-secret probation with the Ole Miss folks. All because we DARED to suggest they would end up 8-4 (or 9-3 at the best).
As I mentioned on their site (before the thread was removed)… If the OM fans are that thin-skinned, they deserve their head coach.
TGoJC said
Just avoid the scout.com and rivals.com forums. They’re bush-leaguers.
TGoJC said
While well written, this post falls short in that it–like so many other prognostications by fans of SEC schools not named “Ole Miss”–lazily falls back onto Ole Miss’ trouble getting over the hump over the last several decades and invokes the idea that Houston Nutt can’t get it done when the pressure is on.
It’s basically what Yankees fans were saying before the 2004 playoffs: “Boston can’t win because they’re Boston.”
Does nobody else find that argument to be trite and lazy?
TGoJC said
Let me restate my initial point that the post WAS well written.
I also like this site. It’s well designed and seems to have fairly level-headed commentors–something which has become increasingly hard to find on SEC pages.
Brett Kincaid said
Thanks for the kind words and for checking us out.
To your point, I do not agree that it is “lazy” as you call it. I think history is germaine to the argument. As a Red Sox fan, even *I* did not believe it would happen in 2004. Until the cycle is broken, it is a very tough psychological barrier.
That said, look what happened once Boston did win. If Ole Miss can win an SECCG, I think they could establish themselves as an annual contender.
ColonelReb said
While HDN may not have acomplished everything yall expected at Arkansas, Ole Miss is a different school and he can have different results. As far as the “They are Ole Miss” argument Nutt did a lot to change that last year with the whole “One Heartbeat” motto and the team lived up to that. This year’s motto is “Unsatisfied” and that is exactly what this team is. Don’t overlook the Rebs, I’ve been let down before so I won’t predict a National Championship or even an SECW title, but we should be a pretty good team.
JDREB22 said
I commented on the rebel boards when it was posted. I think all of the articles on the SEC teams were well written and I look foward to reading more in the future. I do think that the pro-Hog bias and Anti-Nutt bias may have affected some of the predictions, but hey that is why college football is so great. I wish this site the best of luck and will be back again to either boast that you were wrong and Ole Miss did have a great team or eat crow because Arkansas finished ahead of my Rebs. Either way I look foward to an exciting SECW. Just for your information, my predictions for the Rebs are 4-0 with a weak nc schedule and 6-2 in the SEC. The two losses could come from any of the eight teams, although I dont think Vandy, MSU or Auburn will do it this year. All others I give an equal chance. I have the razorbacks at 4-0 in nc after they get a big win in Dallas. I then think that FL, GA, AL, OM and LSU are all better teams than Arkansas this year. I also think South Carolina, Auburn and MSU arent gimmes. Therefore I think the Hogs will upset one of those top 5 teams, but lose the one of the three other teams, going 3-5, but heading to a bowl game.
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