“Take nothing on its looks; take everything on evidence. There’s no better rule.”  Charles Dickens, Great Expectations

 On its face, 2009 looks like a potential banner season for the Ole Miss Rebels.  Fresh from an impressive 9-4 campaign in 2008 that was capped by six consecutive wins, including a 47-34 Cotton Bowl triumph over the Texas Tech Red Raiders, Houston Nutt’s squad is this year’s off-season media darling.

The Rebels can be found in most preseason Top Ten lists, and, undoubtedly, there is a lot to like about Ole Miss as it heads into 2009.  First, the Ole Miss schedule is remarkably soft.  In fact, it’s so soft that when I read the transcript of Houston Nutt’s SEC media days press conference this week, in which he was asked to “talk about having to play in tough environments such as Memphis, South Carolina, and Vanderbilt” I actually blushed.

Memphis is the premier non-conference opponent on the Ole Miss slate. ‘Nuff said.  Additionally, the SEC schedule sets up like a stacked deck of cards for Ole Miss with its toughest road games coming at Auburn and South Carolina.  The Rebels host Alabama, Tennessee, LSU and Arkansas and also have the good fortune of avoiding perennial SEC powerhouse Georgia. 

 Most importantly though, they miss a revenge-fueled Florida squad led by College Football Savior/modern-day Knute Rockne, Tim Tebow.

 If that is not enough to get Johnny Rebs everywhere all Hotty Toddied, they are also undoubtedly delighted to have transplanted Texan quarterback Jevan Snead returning to the helm after he blossomed last year in the Magnolia State.

 Snead was a much-heralded prep All-American who originally signed with Texas, but transferred to Ole Miss after playing five games at UT in 2006 as a freshman.  In 2008, his first season in the SEC, Snead passed for a salty 2,762 yards and 26 touchdowns. 

He also threw 13 interceptions, but eight of those came in the month of September.  The growing pains were most evident in a four-interception clunker of a loss against Vanderbilt in Oxford.

Snead responded to that low point the following week by leading Ole Miss to an improbable 31-30 win over Florida in Gainesville that was the first of nine consecutive games (to end the season) in which he avoided throwing multiple interceptions.   He is in position to be one of the best quarterbacks in college football in the coming season.

On the other side of the ball, Ole Miss returns eight starters from a stout 2008 defense, as well as its enigmatic headliner, the oft-injured, but uber-talented NFL defensive end in waiting, Greg Hardy.

 Throw in 2008 1^st team All-SEC placekicker Joshua Shene, who is the active conference leader in field goals with 42, and it is easy to see why the national sports punditocracy is aflutter over the Rebels.

But, history has taught us a number of valuable, but painful, lessons about Houston Nutt.  Even his fiercest detractors would admit that he has the innate ability to snatch unlikely victories from the jaws of defeat, often at times when seemingly everyone outside of his immediate family thinks the train is coming off of the tracks.

But, unfortunately for Ole Miss fans (and Arkansas fans during his tumultuous tenure in Fayetteville), he also has displayed a consistent, and mind-numbingly frustrating inability to sustain prosperity. 

I won’t recount the 1998 season, because it contained a confluence of events that led me to (at least in my mind’s eye) erase a few months of my life as if I was a character in the Will Smith movie “Men in Black”.

But I DO remember 2003, and the galvanizing 4-0 start for the Razorbacks that featured a blistering of Texas on a sweltering day in September and a come-from-behind, two-overtime win over Alabama in Tuscaloosa that was not for the faint of heart.

I also remember that at that point, a pattern began to emerge for Houston Nutt–extreme highs were met with equally extreme lows.  Nutt and the then Top 10 Hogs were riding a wave of momentum in ‘03 when they suffered a nationally-televised three-game losing streak by dropping home tilts versus Auburn and Florida before losing to Eli Manning and the Rebels in Oxford.

 

Then, in 2006, after a 2-year rebuilding effort and dalliances with Nebraska and LSU, Nutt again brought the Hogs to the brink of college football glory (the SEC Championship Game and, with a win, a potential BCS Championship Game appearance) only to have Razorback fans “Fish”ing for Kleenex.

A backfield that included 2-time HeismanTrophy runner-up Darren McFadden, fellow NFL first rounder Felix Jones and a heckuva third option, Peyton Hillis, carried the Hogs all the way to a Top 5 national ranking, but wasn’t enough to overcome the yipps that plagued the Nutt era at the University of Arkansas.

The Razorbacks limped to the finish in 2006 with losses to LSU (in Little Rock), Florida (in the SEC Championship Game) and Wisconsin (in the Capital One Bowl in Orlando).

I recount these near-misses not for my own, selfish, bitter purposes (OK, maybe a little) but instead to sound a cautionary note to Ole Miss fans–remember your history, as well as that of your head coach.

Ole Miss, despite the fact its gameday traditions include a “Walk of Champions” has not won a conference championship since the passage of the Civil Rights Act.  That is a long, 4 ½ decade walk (but it has featured the best tailgating of any stroll you have ever seen–just ask any Rebels fan).

And, its current leader, Nutt, has shown that he is what he is–a skilled, yet flawed coach that can invigorate a moribund program and bring notable success–but one who cannot lead the pack and finish with a kick.

He has earned SEC Coach of the Year honors twice (2001 and 2006) and has Ole Miss on the college football map, but he has never had a team finish in the Top 10 nationally, and was 2-6 in bowl games at Arkansas.

That is the kind of evidence that suggests looks are deceiving and the Ole Miss Rebels’ Great Expectations will end in great disappointment in 2009.

Ole Miss Offense:

Returning starters: 9

Key Players: Jevan Snead, QB, Dexter McLuster, WR, Cordera Eason, RB, Bradley Sowell, LT

One to Watch: Bradley Sowell, LT

Ole Miss Defense:

Returning Starters: 8

Key Players: Greg Hardy, DE, Kendrick Lewis, FS, Patrick Trahan, WLB

One to Watch: Patrick Trahan, WLB

Key Game(s): @ South Carolina Sept. 26, @ Vanderbilt Oct. 3, Alabama Oct. 10, Arkansas Oct. 24 and LSU Nov. 21

Schedule/Predicted Result: (8-4)

9/6 at Memphis W
9/12 OPEN DATE
9/19 SE Louisiana W
9/26 at South Carolina L
10/3 at Vanderbilt W
10/10 Alabama L
10/17 UAB W
10/24 Arkansas L
10/31 at Auburn W
11/7 Northern Arizona W
11/14 Tennessee W
11/21 LSU L
11/28 at Miss State W